The Daily BriefPublished on EGF: 12.01.2018 Forecast2018 Annual Forecast — North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran — as well as its own trade partners.
A PDF of the 2018 Annual Forecast can also be found here. Essential ReadingIn the EU, East and West Are Falling Out of Tune — Quarrels between the European Union's new member states and their more established neighbors are disrupting the search for harmony on the Continent. Russia: As Elections Approach, Putin Prepares for Protests — With protest movements spreading across the country ahead of major elections, the Kremlin is taking steps to ensure it retains control. U.S., Pakistan: A Carrot-and-Stick Approach to Ports — As the two countries attempt to pursue conflicting goals in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States are both looking for ways to punish and reward the other. Tunisia: Protests Simmer Ahead of Arab Spring Anniversary — As North Africa's democratic success story, the country is no stranger to activism. But the size of this year's demonstrations reflects Tunisians' growing economic concerns. Global PerspectivesBy 2020, Will More or Fewer Islamist Groups Participate in Elections in the Middle East Compared to Today? — Shadi Hamid from Stratfor partner Brookings Doha Center writes that factors such as civil conflicts and a growing disillusionment with the electoral process among Islamists will play a role in determining how active these parties are in future regional elections. Stratfor GraphicDiscussions for the next multiyear EU budget, which will enter force in 2021, start this year. The negotiations will be heated, as the budget will be the first without British contributions. ForumsContribute to the conversation. Share your thoughts in our forum section to engage with our analysts, editors and fellow Stratfor Worldview subscribers. Just one day before the deadline to extend the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has urged the United States not to abandon the deal. Johnson, after meeting with his counterparts from Iran, France, Germany and the European Union, argued that the agreement is making the world safer. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has repeatedly criticized it, and refused to recertify Iranian compliance with the deal in October 2017. News You May Have MissedFor even more news, visit Stratfor's Situation Reports page.
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