The Daily BriefPublished on EGF: 20.06.2018 Forecast2018 Third-Quarter Forecast — It promises to be an especially fractious quarter as the United States continues to spar not only with adversaries but allies as well. The simmering trade dispute with China will continue, Russia will struggle to break its stalemate with the West, Europe has a litany of problems to address, and anything could happen on the Korean Peninsula. Link We’ve introduced a new format for our third-quarter forecast, and we’d love to know what you think. Your feedback will help inform our forecasts moving forward. The survey should only take a few minutes to complete. Click here to take the survey. (And thank you!) Essential ReadingBending the Internet: China Weighs Commercial Growth Against Government Control — The Chinese government has built its plan for economic growth around the internet. The challenge will be striking a balance between control and innovation. Link Germany: Merkel Struggles With Immigration Policy — Segments of Germany's ruling coalition are pushing for a more drastic plan to deal with economic migrants and asylum seekers, and the resulting conflict mirrors the larger debate over immigration among EU members. Link On SecurityGauging an Emerging Jihadist Threat in Mozambique — Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo is giving cause for concern after a spate of attacks in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, which is rich in natural gas reserves. But just how much of a threat is the jihadist group? Link
Global PerspectivesTrump's Road to Damascus and a Chance for Conversion — Stratfor contributor Charles Glass says former officials from the Obama administration acknowledge that the intervention they launched in Syria fell far short of its objectives. Now members of the current administration have a chance to learn from their failure, or to repeat the same mistakes. Link Stratfor GraphicFrom a Western perspective, the internet in China is as locked-down as it gets. ForumsContribute to the conversation. Share your thoughts in our forum section to engage with our analysts, editors and fellow Stratfor Worldview subscribers. According to Chinese state media, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is making his third visit to China on June 19 and 20. As the issues on the Korean Peninsula have unfolded, China has continued to play an influential role. However, it has not always used its influence in ways that many countries, particularly the United States, have liked. Topic of the Week: Brexit and BeyondAs the British Parliament debates the EU withdrawal bill this week, Brexit is on our minds. The United Kingdom may have voted to leave the European Union, but it can’t escape geography; it will have to define its political and economic relationships with the countries closest to it no matter what. And the process by which it does so will take years to complete. Immigration, membership in the EU internal market and the future of the British financial sector will all be points of negotiation — and of contention. Going forward, the United Kingdom will turn to a familiar strategy, one that it has employed since the end of World War II: balancing its relations with Continental Europe while strengthening ties with the United States. Link |
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