By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF

Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. READ MORE

By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation in Budapest and Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

Just over two months into U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, new uncertainties have begun to reshape the West’s approach toward the war in Ukraine. As the conflict grinds through its third year, signs of strategic drift have emerged across Western capitals. With battlefield momentum stalled, political divisions deepening, and public fatigue rising, the West now faces a narrowing window to reassess its goals—or risk drifting toward a scenario of prolonged stalemate and fractured unity. While former president Joe Biden framed the war as a broader fight for democracy and pledged open–ended support to Kyiv, Trump’s foreign policy instincts emphasize burden sharing, cost efficiency, and transactional diplomacy. These principles are already shaping Washington’s posture. Military aid packages have slowed, public rhetoric has shifted toward ending the war “quickly,” and U.S. diplomatic overtures increasingly hint at conditional support rather than blank checks. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia


The promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly was one of Donald J. Trump’s main campaign pledges. Upon returning to the White House in January 2025, the president began taking steps toward this goal. The world witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations: face-to-face meetings between Mr. Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin; multiple phone calls between Mr. Trump and Presidents Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; direct US–Russia and US–Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia; and a tense meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Zelensky.
As a result, Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for one month. Negotiations are now underway for a broader ceasefire. It is too early to assess the likelihood of a complete and lasting ceasefire — let alone the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 6, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel is engaged in discussions with the United States “to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the U.S.”. This statement coincided with debates in the Knesset on “Upgrading the Strategic Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan”. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) highlighted Azerbaijan’s role as a “strategic ally in the Caucasus region,” with bilateral cooperation spanning security, trade, technology, and energy. Israeli National Missions Minister Orit Strock, speaking on behalf of the government, emphasized the unique and long-standing friendship between Israel and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the disintegration of the Syrian state after 2011, the Kurds in northeast Syria became key players in shaping the country’s future. The recent agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) further consolidated their role. However, the future of the Syrian state remains uncertain amid the horrors of the massacres of Alawites on the Syrian coast by radical Islamist factions affiliated with the new administration, Israel’s aspirations to encourage secessionist tendencies among the Druze community in Syria’s south, and Turkey’s strategic interests in Syria, which seem to collide with American- Israeli interests. This article sheds light on the agreement between Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF General Mazloum Abdi and assess Turkey’s ambitions amid growing domestic and regional uncertainties shaping Syria’s future. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan’s strategic location in the South Caucasus, economic potential, and historical ties with Turkic states underscore its regional significance. Positioned as a vital energy corridor, it fosters economic diversification, infrastructure development, and diplomatic engagement with Central Asia. Azerbaijan plays a key role in regional connectivity, humanitarian initiatives, and multilateral cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States, shaping geopolitical dynamics.
Situated at the nexus of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan’s proximity to significant energy producers and consumers has established it as a vital transit corridor for energy resources. This strategic positioning has not only reinforced Azerbaijan’s centrality in regional energy security but also facilitated avenues for collaboration and partnerships with neighbouring states. In addition to its prominence in the energy sector, Azerbaijan has pursued economic diversification, fostering expertise in fields such as advanced technology, transportation, and tourism. READ MORE