The alternative scenarios facing the South Caucasus By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
As the global order continues to morph into a more complex architecture with an array of global and regional powers, the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance. The tectonic changes in the region of the last four years – the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the regional implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and forced displacement of Armenians, the EU candidate status for Georgia and Georgia’s quest for multi-vector foreign policy including the establishment of strategic partnership with China, the limbo in Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, growing assertiveness of Azerbaijan and eventual move of Armenia towards closer cooperation with the EU and the US – all make the situation quite complex.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.05.2024
| External Relations
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Russian withdrawal from Karabakh allows Azerbaijan to strengthen its ties with its Turkic "family" By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even sceptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.05.2024
| Security
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Border readjustment in Tavush, what’s next? By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On April 17, 2024, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at a meeting with the residents of Kirants village in the Tavush region, said that for the past 30 years, the residents have lived “in the conditions of lawlessness, and the time has come to put an end to this, to establish a rule of law” in the region. The PM added: “Our idea is for you not to say Azerbaijan is 50 meters away, but to say, wow, it is good that Azerbaijan is 50 meters away. We will trade there. We will build the economy there. Maybe we will build another checkpoint. Cars will come and go and pay the Republic of Armenia.” He later continued: “Now you can say to me: Do you 100-percent guarantee that you will do this? I will answer, I don’t guarantee 100-percent, but I know that by taking step by step, we will reach 90-percent or even more.” Azerbaijan insists that there are four bordering villages near Armenia’s Tavush and Azerbaijan’s Qazax region that must be ceded to Azerbaijan. Baku argues that these villages were taken by Armenian forces in the early 1990s.”
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.05.2024
| External Relations
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Conflict in the South Caucasus and the Middle East By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada
Armenia and the South Caucasus were historically parts of the former Soviet Union, and are often considered, in geopolitical terms, to be in the so-called Moscow-influenced “Russia’s near abroad”. It might be useful, however, to recognize the significant connections of the South Caucasus to the Middle East. In fact, Armenia is relatively close geographically (under 1,000 km) to each of the capital cities of Teheran (Iran), Baghdad (Iraq), and Ankara (Turkiye) and not much farther from Israel and Lebanon (under 1,300 km). In terms of international affairs and recent conflict Turkey has been a crucial military ally of Azerbaijan during the latter’s wars with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in 2020 and 2023. A lesser-known fact is that, over the previous decade, Israel has been a major weapons’ supplier of Azerbaijan, particularly advanced drones that proved critical for Baku’s swift and decisive victory in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, and its 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, which displaced over 100,000 civilians, virtually all of the local Armenian population. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.05.2024
| Security
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Tashkent will host the first meeting of Central Asia Regional Expert Council in Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Returnees Tashkent/New York/Vienna, May 10, 2024.
On May 14 this year, the first meeting of Central Asia Regional Expert Council in Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Returnees from armed conflict zones will be held in Tashkent.
The Regional Expert Council is being established on the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan, Mr. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, put forward in March 2022 in Tashkent at the high-level conference “Regional cooperation of the countries of Central Asia under the Joint Action Plan for the implementation UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy” and supported by international partners.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 10.05.2024
| External Relations
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Address by President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the Third Tashkent International Investment Forum Dear participants of the forum!
Ladies and gentlemen!
At the outset, let me sincerely welcome you at the third Tashkent International Investment Forum.
I would like to note with pleasure that within the framework of this format, which is becoming a great annual tradition, new and reliable partners from all continents of the world are gathering in our country. Over the past three years, this Forum has provided a broad platform for enhancing collaboration, discussing pressing issues, and generating fruitful ideas and solutions to tackle the most urgent challenges.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 02.05.2024
| External Relations
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Uzbekistan-Tajikistan: commitment to deepening cooperation based on principles of good-neighborliness and mutual trust President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will pay a state visit to Tajikistan on April 18-19 at the invitation of President Emomali Rahmon.
As close neighbors whose peoples are historically and culturally inseparable from each other, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have brought their relations to the level of strategic partnership and alliance.
The close and constructive political dialog established between the leaders of the two countries, supported by regular bilateral and multilateral meetings, plays a huge role in the development of mutually beneficial and fruitful cooperation.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 19.04.2024
| External Relations
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Yerevan’s ‘Crossroads for Peace’ Remains Elusive By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On April 5, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed support for the “Crossroads for Peace” project of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during a press conference before their meeting in Brussels. The project, which was presented to the public during the Armenian premier’s address at the Fourth Silk Road Forum in Tbilisi on October 26, 2023, envisions opening new transportation routes across Armenia with the hopes of transforming the country into a regional transit hub. The project calls for the opening of connections between Azerbaijan and Türkiye via Armenian territory and aims to incorporate these links into east-west trade along the Middle Corridor. Neither Baku nor Ankara, however, has been consulted or declared any support for the initiative. Thus, Pashinyan’s project remains “on paper,” and failure to work directly with the Azerbaijan and Turkish governments may mean the idea never comes to fruition.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 17.04.2024
| External Relations
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Reflection on the “Friends of Armenia Network” white paper By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On March 27, 2024, a high-level group named “Friends of Armenia Network” headed by the former Danish Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen published a white paper aiming to “galvanize support for democratic Armenia and promote peace in South Caucasus.” The title of the paper is “Deepening EU-Armenia Relations: More Europe in Armenia; More Armenia in Europe,” and the authors include former prime ministers, European parliamentarians and diplomats.
“Armenia is pivoting to the West,” the paper argues, and the EU has a strategic and value-based interest in supporting this pivot. To succeed, both Yerevan and Brussels need to make a “substantial, long-term strategic commitment in terms of resources, security cooperation, trade relations, and political engagement.” To make this pivot “irreversible,” the EU must grant Armenia “EU candidate status,” which would match Yerevan’s strategic orientation, back up its geopolitical commitments and minimize the impact of Moscow’s reaction to Yerevan by increasing the latter’s resilience.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 17.04.2024
| External Relations
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Central Asian countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council: synergy of potentials Uzbekistan, and Tashkent in particular, is becoming the venue for an important international forum that should give a practical vector to a new format of interregional cooperation based on the traditions of centuries-old exchanges between the peoples of Central Asia and the Arab States of the Gulf and today's huge potential for mutually beneficial co-operation.
The first ministerial meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asia Strategic Dialogue was held on 7 September 2022 in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.04.2024
| External Relations
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