Russia and Ukraine are still hanging on to conflicting positions over the possible geopolitical endgames of the war in Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine are still hanging on to conflicting positions over the possible geopolitical endgames of the war in Ukraine. That makes reaching an armistice, let aside a full-fledged peace treaty, a Sisyphean task. Most experts agreed that a glimmer of realism in Ukraine's war strategy might open the door to ceasefire negotiations. However, any post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine will be bound to rely on a Russia-West agreement over new European security arrangements. READ MORE
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group
Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.
From the EGF Head of Research
As the war in Ukraine has escalated since February 2022 it has also become entangled with the global confrontation between the West and the China- Russia- Iran- North Korea revisionist quartet. It is therefore the responsibility of Ukraine’s regional and global allies and friends to help Kyiv devise a new war strategy that should stabilize the front line, mitigate the Russian attrition war, and start peace negotiations on realistic terms. READ MORE
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
From the EGF Head of Research
Europe is facing a crucial security dilemma ensuing from its higher military dependence on the US, distrust of Russia, and reluctance to negotiate on building a new European security architecture: it should either escalate the war with Russia or lose (at least much of) Ukraine at its own peril. Such evolutions could portend a fresh crisis in European affairs. READ MORE
Between 16-18 November 2023, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 26th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group
Between 16-18 November 2023, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 26th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “New Security Arrangements for the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for Marat’s and here for George’s speaking points.
From the EGF Head of Research
A regional footprint of the great powers’ global competition might be in the making and drawing the Middle East towards renewed intra-regional confrontation. The new balance of power might feature US and Israel, on the one hand, Iran and its proxies, and possibly Syria, on the other hand. How would Russia, the EU/European states, UK, Turkiye, China, and the Arab states position themselves against the emerging new balance of power is still to be seen. READ MORE
From the EGF Head of Research
To manage the highly consequential risk of China becoming a military spoiler in Ukraine, the West should reassure Beijing that maintaining the current Chinese-styled “neutrality” worked well for Chinese interests, including by reassuring Beijing against fears of potential economic isolation. In fact, China should not be expected to pursue conflict resolution in Ukraine, but merely some crisis mediation. The key issue is how it would do that: entirely on Russian terms or otherwise. READ MORE
Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 25th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group
Between 30 March and 01 April 2023, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 25th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Discussing a South Caucasus Short of Russian Dominance”, held in Tbilisi (Georgia). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for the agreed policy recommendations from participants, here for Marat’s paper for the workshop, and here for George’s speaking points.
From the EGF Head of Research
The downside of the existing geopolitical endgames of the war in Ukraine is that they might be only applied either after the end of the war or to Kyiv-controlled territory at the time of a possibly agreed truce. The latter possibility engenders the risk for Ukraine and its Western supporters to eventually have to choose between restoring Ukraine’s full territorial integrity and Western interests to avoid joining the war, turning it nuclear, or remaining engulfed into an exhausting open-ended war. This is why the West needs a comprehensive vision and a calibrated strategy aiming to build a new European security system which would put Ukraine and other post-Soviet states’ sovereignty, independence, and stability at its core. READ MORE
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