By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, Humboldt Senior Fellow, Centre for East European and International Studies

Almost three decades on from the fall of communism, the European Union’s Eastern neighborhood remains embroiled in protracted conflicts that have hampered regional integration, bred mistrust, and encouraged wasteful military spending. This is mainly because the leaders of the Eastern Partnership countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—lack flexible reconciliation strategies that may help build peace and foster political stability and economic prosperity.
Complex lingering conflicts have made the European Union’s Eastern partners the objects of a damaging geopolitical tussle between Russia and the EU. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Turkey-NATO relations have a history of challenges more or less since Turkey’s accession to NATO in 1952. Strained relations between Turkey and NATO have begun long before Turkey’s alleged failed coup attempt on 15 July 2016. However, the failed coup attempt increased tensions further and it is fair to assume that these tense relations are likely to continue. At the same time, Turkey-NATO relations are constrained by a not yet amended North Atlantic Treaty of 4 April 1949. As long as the treaty remains not updated very little can be done to change the nature of Turkey-NATO relations. READ MORE.

By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas


Dear Colleagues,

It is with great pride that we send you this 100th edition of the Gazprom Monitor.

The Gazprom Monitor was the brainchild of Dr Marat Terterov, Founder of the European Geopolitical Forum and the Brussels Energy Club. The first issue of the Gazprom Monitor was published in December 2010. […] Since that first edition, almost nine years ago, we have seen the launch of Nord Stream, the replacement of South Stream and Nabucco by the Turkish Stream and TANAP-TAP pipelines, a dramatic increase in the use of hub-indexation in place of oil-indexation in Gazprom’s long-term export contracts, the conduct and settlement of the EU antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom, the launch of Gazprom’s own Electronic Sales Platform, the completion of Gazprom’s acquisition of the Belarusian gas pipeline system, the long-running sagas of the Gazprom-Naftogaz and Gazprom-Lithuania arbitration cases, the cessation of direct Ukrainian gas imports from Russia, the sale of Gazprom’s shares in pipelines in the Baltic states, the launch of new LNG import terminals in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Poland, and France, opening the door to competing LNG from around the world including, most recently, from the United States, and the volume of Gazprom’s annual gas exports to Europe growing to record levels in 2017 and 2018.READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 3, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an official visit to Russia to attend the 16^th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, in Sochi (President.az, October 3). Aliyev’s speech at the high-level event touched on multiple topics, including Azerbaijan’s partnership with Russia, the unresolved issue of Karabakh, and regional security in the South Caucasus region, to name a few. Notably, during his remarks, Aliyev declared, “Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan—exclamation point!” which sparked heated discussions in both Azerbaijani and Armenian mass media and online (Turan Agency, October 4). READ MORE

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE