By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF

Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 have dramatically disrupted the status quo in the South Caucasus, thrusting the region into the center of regional and global power rivalries. To varying degrees, Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, Israel, France, India, China, and Pakistan are involved in the South Caucasus, creating a complex nexus of overlapping and diverging interests shaping the region’s geopolitical present and future. In recent years, the United States and the European Union have increased their presence in the South Caucasus. However, potential change in leadership in Washington and the shifting priorities in the forthcoming EU legislative cycle could significantly alter their engagement in the region. The Biden Administration has pursued active engagement in the South Caucasus. The United States has been one of the main mediators in Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations, organizing several meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington from 2022-2024 and the meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev in February 2023 in Munich. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On July 31, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien reaffirmed Washington’s plans to establish a land trade route through Azerbaijan and Armenia. He stated that this route aims to offer Central Asian countries an alternative and reduce their reliance on Russia and China for access to global markets. In addition to his earlier remarks, O’Brien pointed out that part of this strategy is aimed to “create conditions” for Armenia to “distance itself from Russia”. According to him, Armenia is “almost completely dependent” on Russia for its economy and energy. Therefore, the United States supports Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s bold steps in his diversification efforts. Armenia’s re-posturing is representative of a geopolitical shift occurring throughout the wider region as the three states of the South Caucasus move further away from Russian influence. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On August 29, 2023, in my article “What does the expansion of BRICS mean for the South Caucasus?” I argued that Iran’s accession to BRICS and the integration of the region’s infrastructure into the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) would similarly increase pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to join the bloc. The post-2020 regional status quo and the war in Ukraine have opened the path for new Eurasian actors such as India and China to exert their influence on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is the main beneficiary of this development. Positioned strategically along the North-South and East-West transport corridors, Baku has capitalized on its position to become a pivotal transportation and logistics hub in Eurasia. This has caught the attention of China amid the geopolitical shifts that took place in the South Caucasus in light of the second Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Ukraine wars. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza. Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation. Fidan’s visit to Russia came shortly after he visited China, where he reiterated Ankara’s willingness to join BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These pronouncements have raised eyebrows in the West. US Ambassador to Türkiye Jeff Flake declared that Türkiye’s place is “in the West” and voiced his hope that Ankara would decide against joining the bloc. READ MORE

By Alan WHITEHORN, Professor Emeritus in Political Science, The Royal Military College of Canada

Armenia and the South Caucasus were historically parts of the former Soviet Union, and are often considered, in geopolitical terms, to be in the so-called Moscow-influenced “Russia’s near abroad”. It might be useful, however, to recognize the significant connections of the South Caucasus to the Middle East. In fact, Armenia is relatively close geographically (under 1,000 km) to each of the capital cities of Teheran (Iran), Baghdad (Iraq), and Ankara (Turkiye) and not much farther from Israel and Lebanon (under 1,300 km). In terms of international affairs and recent conflict Turkey has been a crucial military ally of Azerbaijan during the latter’s wars with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in 2020 and 2023. A lesser-known fact is that, over the previous decade, Israel has been a major weapons’ supplier of Azerbaijan, particularly advanced drones that proved critical for Baku’s swift and decisive victory in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, and its 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, which displaced over 100,000 civilians, virtually all of the local Armenian population. READ MORE

Akilov Alimjon Rakhimovich,
Chief Researcher of Department of analyzing the effectiveness of constitutional construction and public administration of Institute of Legislation and Legal Policy under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, doctor of legal sciences, professor

The year 2016 for Uzbekistan was marked by the beginning of a fundamentally new in essence and content stage of state and social construction, in which the main strategic goal was proclaimed - the construction of a New Uzbekistan, based on the values that served the greatest flourishing of our statehood in the 9th-10th centuries (known in world history as First Eastern Renaissance) and XIV-XV centuries (Second Eastern Renaissance). As in previous periods, the basis and priorities of the Third Renaissance of our statehood are the development of science and modern technologies, which are intended to become drivers of dramatic development of the country’s economy, a radical improvement in the well-being of the people and the prosperity of the nation. READ MORE