On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 11, European Council President António Costa held talks in Baku with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The visit came at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty across Europe’s eastern neighbourhood amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East, underscoring the growing importance of EU–Azerbaijan relations. The leaders used the occasion to reaffirm their commitment to strengthening cooperation across a broad agenda ranging from energy and connectivity to security and economic development. The two presidents issued a joint press statement following the meeting, emphasizing “the strategic importance of the Azerbaijan–EU partnership” and expressing their determination to deepen political dialogue and practical cooperation. Both sides aim to build on the “positive momentum of recent high-level meetings” and expand cooperation in areas such as security, energy, and transport. The document stressed that the partnership contributes to “peace, stability, connectivity and sustainable development in the wider Black Sea, South Caucasus and Central Asia regions”. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

By Bibhu Prasad ROUTRAY, PhD, Director & Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

As the war in Iran and Ukraine rages, together with China’s continued expansion, noticeably in the South China Sea but also in Myanmar/Burma, major global players are preoccupied to the extent that non-state extremist actors have virtually free rein to expand. The global terror groups Islamic State and al Qaeda sense a window of opportunity to consolidate in their current strongholds and push beyond. Much of this organisational expansion and accompanying violence is taking place in Asia and West Africa. However, if the wars drag on, limiting security responses of the major nations to the evolving threats, such violence can potentially spread to Europe and even the United States. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

On February 10, railway officials from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Ashgabat to strengthen cooperation and accelerate the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor. Development of the Middle Corridor continues to gain momentum as Eurasian states seek faster, more geopolitically resilient trade routes linking Asia and Europe. The southern branch of the corridor stretches from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to the Caspian Sea, and onward via Azerbaijan and Georgia to Türkiye and European markets. This section has emerged as an increasingly important segment of the network. As regional connectivity initiatives accelerate, the southern branch is gradually becoming a key component of the evolving Eurasian transport architecture READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbour, Azerbaijan. In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites. While Azerbaijani officials categorically denied any involvement in Israeli military operations and the Iranian government did not present concrete evidence supporting its claims, the media campaign renewed tensions between Tehran and Baku, undermining a period of cautious diplomatic stability that had followed earlier disputes over Armenia and other issues. Indeed, the Iranian criticism of a growing Azerbaijan-Israel alliance is not a new phenomenon and Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have long been a source of discontent in Azerbaijan-Iran relations. READ MORE

Ozodbek Nazarbekov, Minister of Culture of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Culture and art are the foundation of civilization, national identity, and spiritual perfection, as well as important indicators of a country’s progress. The development of these spheres, reflecting the spiritual growth of the people, their past, present, and future, requires an approach that meets the demands of the times. This is why the reforms aimed at the development of culture and art in Uzbekistan carry profound meaning and are entering a new phase. READ MORE

Samariddin Sattorov,
Chief Researcher of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In recent years, geopolitical tensions have been increasing in different regions of the world, and interethnic conflicts and contradictions on religious grounds continue to worsen.
In the context of such instability, maintaining an open and constructive dialogue between different religious and cultural groups is becoming vital. Strengthening religious tolerance helps to create an atmosphere of mutual understanding, respect and generosity in society, which in turn alleviates tensions and prevents the escalation of conflicts. READ MORE