The likeliest scenarios for tomorrow’s Russia [Over] By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
The folly of predicting Russia’s future
When undertaking the task of seeking to forecast a ‘likely scenario’ for tomorrow’s Russia, one has to start with a caveat – predicting Russia’s future and what fate awaits the country in light of its continued military excursion in Ukraine is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. In other words, it is almost impossible to predict future political developments in Russia with any real certainty. This includes any efforts to predict whether Russia will continue to remain the arch belligerent in Ukraine, or whether it will be prepared to make concessions, or to forecast what impact either (or other) of these developments in the current conflict in Ukraine will have on the Russian regime of Vladimir Putin.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:18
Armenia must not ignore developments in the Middle East[Over] By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
The South Caucasus will be the epicentre of any political or economic friction between Russia and the Middle East. The region, located along the International North-South Transport Corridor, is the most feasible gateway to connect Russia to the Middle East. Russia’s increasing economic and political interaction and involvement in the Middle East will further enhance its dependency on Azerbaijan, due to its bridging location, and Turkey, its partner in addressing upheavals in the Arab region. These two factors may push Russia to pressure Armenia to agree on the implementation of article nine of the November 10, 2020, trilateral statement on unblocking economic and transport communications in the region and deploying Russian border guards to control the transit road connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave. By doing so, Russia assumes it would increase its leverage on the main actors in the region that will use the transit route connecting Europe to China. The main actor within this context is Turkey, which aims to use the shortest route (compared to the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route) to trade with the Central Asian republics and beyond.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:17
Is Azerbaijan Interested in Peace?[Over] By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
After the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023 and the forced displacement of the Armenians who lived there, there were hopes in Armenia and abroad that an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement was within reach. These hopes were based on the assumption that Azerbaijan had achieved its primary objective for the past 30 years: the full absorption of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan without any Armenian claims over the region.
Since September 2023, Azerbaijan has controlled all of Nagorno-Karabakh, with only a handful of Armenians remaining there. The Armenian government has accepted this reality and has no intention of challenging it. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has faced no repercussions from the US, the EU, or Russia for imposing a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022, ignoring the orders of the International Court of Justice, launching a military attack in September 2023, or forcing all Armenians to leave the region. It seemed that the time for peace had thus arrived – a peace that would formalize Azerbaijani control over Nagorno-Karabakh, settle relations with Armenia, and open the way for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:16
The Role of Foreign Actors in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict[Over] By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
This AIES Focus discusses the four major foreign actors in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the time frame of the last 12 to 18 months. While Russia and Turkey are active and directly involved, China and India are implicitly but not explicitly involved in the conflict. As a result, the author tries to present and highlight the divergent and convergent perspectives of the foreign actors in the conflict. One of the major focal points of the conflict relates to what the Azerbaijani call the Zangezur corridor, and the Armenians perceive as a bone of contention. What is perhaps not least important to emphasise is that for Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, the corridor has a crucial role in the transportation link between Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Turkic States. As for Armenia and Iran, its neighbouring country, the establishment of such a corridor is perceived as an existential threat. READ MORE
- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:16
The Emerging Azerbaijan-Gulf Partnership in Energy[Over]
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On January 8, Mohammad bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ), the leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), paid an official visit to Azerbaijan upon the invitation of his counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev. While MBZ’s visit to Baku signaled an era of deepening economic and energy ties between Azerbaijan and the UAE, it also reflected significant progress made in recent years. Indeed, the bilateral relationship has seen a raft of new projects and investments, particularly in the renewable energy sector. Notably, according to 2022 data, the Gulf countries are now among Azerbaijan’s top investment partners, though reciprocal investment remains low, compared to Azerbaijan’s other partners. READ MORE
- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:15
Eco-Tourism in Uzbekistan: A Journey Towards Sustainability[Over] In the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan, a country known for its dazzling architecture and rich history, is emerging as a promising eco-tourism destination.
Eco-tourism in Uzbekistan presents an opportunity to explore the country’s natural beauty while contributing to its sustainable development. As more travelers seek out eco-friendly travel options, Uzbekistan stands as a testament to the power of eco-tourism to transform not just the landscape, but also the lives of the people who call it home.
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- Thursday, 14 March 2024, 17:13
Strategic Abstention: The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Deliberate Inaction in Gaza[Over]
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Amid the escalating Gaza war, a striking absence marks the regional conflict landscape: the non-involvement of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including Iran and its proxies. Nearly six weeks into the war, these forces have consistently communicated their decision to remain on the sidelines. This inaction comes into sharp focus against the backdrop of Iran’s strategy to leverage non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas in its proxy warfare. While Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified their stance in a much-anticipated speech a month into the conflict, the impact of this abstention is profound. Israel, grappling with internal divisions and security vulnerabilities heightened by Hamas’s attacks, finds itself in a precarious position not seen in decades.
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- Tuesday, 5 December 2023, 13:02
The main directions of the state policy of Uzbekistan in the context of improving the country's position in international rankings and indices[Over] Tokhir Khasanov, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, DSc. in Economics, Associate Professor
Uzbekistan, nestled in the heart of Central Asia, has historically been a melting pot of cultures and civilizations, thanks to its pivotal role in the Silk Road. Its rich tapestry of history reflects a blend of empires, nomads, and diverse cultures that have left their mark over millennia.
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- Tuesday, 28 November 2023, 07:45
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