By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

It should be remembered that Turkey’s relations with NATO were not as smooth as perhaps some experts wished to think, even before the failed coup on 15 July 2016. For instance, back in November 2009 the AKP government was adamant that despite Turkish soldiers’ participation in the ISAF mission they were not combat troops. Turkey's position at the time irked allies in NATO and the US in particular, and it has not changed since then. READ MORE

by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

How could the EU best deal with a revisionist Russia who challenged the post-Cold War European security order, most notably in Ukraine and in Georgia? We should probably start from considering EU’s current strategic options in its Eastern Neighbourhood.  The key question here is what should be the EU’s objective in this contested region? Is it to find a compromise solution with Moscow on how to fix the broken security order? Or is it to defend its shared values in the Eastern Neighbourhood, and to eventually annihilate the Russian power and influence? READ MORE

By Dr.Cyril Widdershoven, EGF Affiliated Expert, Military geopolitics

Military environment in the Mediterranean is changing according to the chess plans of Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin. After bridging the immense opposition Russia was encountering during and after the demise of the USSR, a new Russian influence sphere has been built up of unforeseen order. It how the situation is perceived by Western leaders and military experts.
Re-emergence of Russian military assets and bilateral and multilateral relations with Arab countries is now being substantiated by the set-up of new military alliances in and around the Mediterranean. READ MORE

Mehmet Ogutcu
EGF Affiliated Expert

LONDON - As the world is preparing to leave 2016 behind as a year fraught with political surprises, financial crises and market volatility, governments and businesses including those in Turkey have started to set their eyes on what the next 12 months have in store for them politically and economically. 

Clearly, global risks are more elevated and more interconnected than we have ever seen before and demand a proactive and integrated response to address potential impacts. To refresh your memory, since the end of the Bretton Woods order in the 1970s, there have been serious financial crises every seven years over the past 40 years: 1987, 1997, 2007.  If you ask me whether the global crisis which has been brewing in the last few years could erupt in 2017, my answer would be yes. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

EGF is excited to announce the launch of a new monthly information product, the Geopolitical Trends. Written by our long-time Head of Research, George Vlad Niculescu, it aims to fill a gap in complex, multi-optional coverage of key geopolitical trends in Eurasia. Each issue will delve deeply into current events, such as recent Russian/American actions in Syria and implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

For year 2016:
Please click here for Issue 1
Please click here for Issue 2

For year 2015:
Please click here for Issue 1
Please click here for Issue 2

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert

Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration. More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by: READ MORE

The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

Please click here for the summary of conclusions.
Please click here to see the agenda of the seminar, and participants’ biographies.
Please click here to see the EGF presentation on this research.