The Arab Spring of 2011: Understanding the change that is yet to come

Published on EGF: 13.06.2011

by Dr. Marat Terterov

The year 2011 has apparently brought tumultuous change to the Arab nation states of the wider Middle East. Not since the early years of post-colonialism, when some of the Arab world’s most established monarchies were overthrown by military juntas often led by daring young army officers, has the region seen events which can be broadly compared to those of 2011. Indeed, given the overwhelming stranglehold with which post-colonial Arab regimes have held on to power in recent decades, this year’s domino effect – where the collapse of the Tunisian and Egyptians presidencies has subsequently engulfed Libya, Yemen, Syria and other Arab countries – is all the more impressive. However, while long standing authoritarian rulers are no longer in power in Tunisia and Egypt, and while there is much uncertainty as to whether regimes will survive in other Arab countries, do we really have a good understanding of where the so called Arab Spring is taking the region ? Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak are no longer in power in Tunisia and Egypt respectively, but has any genuine political change taken place in these countries ? Furthermore, is it likely to occur, and if it does, what sort of societies are likely to emerge – neo-authoritarian, democratic, Islamist, other ? While some commentators have spoken of this year’s Arab Spring as the Arab World’s “1989”, others are calling it their 1952, when Gemal Nasser’s revolution came to power in Egypt, elevating the military to power and ultimately instilling populist-socialist-authoritarian political culture.

The discussion will be moderated by Dr Marat Terterov, a resident of Brussels, a native of the Black Sea port-city of Odessa, and a citizen of Australia.

Dr Terterov defended his D.Phil. at St.Antony’s College, Oxford, in April 2002, addressing the topic of the politics of Egypt’s privatisation-economic reform programs of the 1990s. Dr Terterov conducted his studies at the Middle East Centre at St.Antony’s College and the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies from 1995 to 2001, and is trained academically as a political economist of the Middle East. He also has extensive expertise in the area of Islamic radicalism and teaches an academic module on Islam and conflict at the Brussels School of International Studies/the University of Kent. During his studies at Oxford, Dr Terterov spent extensive stints in the Middle East (over to two years) in Egypt and Syria, where he likewise studied classical Arabic. After the completion of his D.Phil., amongst his other projects, Dr Terterov also developed a research program on Russian relations with the Arabian/Persian Gulf for the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai, UAE. He recently published an edited volume on Russian and CIS relations with the Gulf and has written/commented widely on Middle Eastern politics in the press and within analytical circles. He is also the director and founder of the Brussels-based European Geopolitical Forum, a newly established internet resource and knowledge body dedicated towards an objective understanding of wider-European geopolitics.