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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Thursday 5 June 2025

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Context
Publications No Deal, No Deterrence: Iran’s Rise in a New Geopolitical Triangle

Elkhan Nuriyev By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation in Budapest and Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

The United States is heading toward a strategic collision with Iran, with implications that extend far beyond Washington. Despite resumed nuclear talks in Muscat, diplomacy is unlikely to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Not because of tactical missteps, but because the world — and Iran’s position within it — has changed. While negotiations continue, Washington has not eased its pressure. The United States has imposed new separate sanctions packages on Iran in April alone, targeting sectors from missile development to financial networks. The cost of drawn-out diplomacy is mounting, and Tehran faces increasing pressure to shift its strategy or absorb deeper economic pain.The current impasse is no longer about centrifuges or sanctions. It reflects a hardening geopolitical triangle that now links Iran with Russia and China, a partnership that is reshaping power dynamics across the Middle East and influencing global strategic stability. READ MORE

  • May 19, 2025
Publications The Port of Baku Facilitates Trans-Eurasian Commerce (Part 2)

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan is embarking on ambitious reforms and collaborations within its transport and logistics sector, driven by the opportunities presented by the Middle Corridor trade route. Initiatives such as the integration of Azerbaijan’s railway and port systems and the establishment of international partnerships signal a push toward greater efficiency and connectivity in trade infrastructure. On April 25, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, during a press conference with Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stated that work is underway to increase the cargo capacity at the Port of Baku from 15 million tons to 25 million tons. Efforts such this underscore Baku’s vision of transforming the country into a critical node of global trade routes, reinforcing regional connectivity and contributing to economic diversification READ MORE

  • May 19, 2025
News The Take: How could Pope Leo XIV reshape the Catholic Church?

One week into his papacy, we look at the significance of Pope Leo XIV.

  • May 14, 2025
News Kremlin declines to say if Putin will meet Ukraine’s Zelenskyy in Istanbul

Donald Trump says there is a ‘possibility’ he will head to Turkiye for talks on Ukraine if Vladimir Putin also goes.

  • May 14, 2025
News Trump meets Syria’s al-Sharaa, eyes normalisation of ties with Damascus

US president urges Syria’s interim president to establish ties with Israel, says US will drop ‘all sanctions’ on Damascus.

  • May 14, 2025
Publications Europe’s moment for building peace in the South Caucasus



Dr. Marat Terterov, Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, discusses the current situation of the European Union’s relations with the South Caucasian countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. He also explains his vision for regional cooperation in the South Caucasus, and the steps needed to discourage conflict and foster stability. WATCH MORE

  • May 7, 2025
Publications Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), meeting with President Xi Jinping to cement the bilateral partnership that began in 2024. During the visit, Aliyev and Xi signed an agreement to establish a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Azerbaijan and the PRC. The visit came at a tense time for the PRC as an intensifying trade war with the United States motivates Beijing to seek alternative transit routes and destinations for exports. Azerbaijan’s role as a viable transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe positions it to cultivate partnerships with nearly all regional states. Baku accordingly plays a role in both the PRC-led “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the Middle Corridor, underscoring Azerbaijan’s growing of ties with the PRC and European Union. READ MORE

  • May 6, 2025
Publications Armenia–Turkey Normalisation Process: What Next?

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Since Armenia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, normalizing relations with Turkey has been one of the country’s top foreign-policy priorities. The rationale behind this has been both economic, to end the blockade and facilitate access to Turkish Mediterranean ports, and political, to drive a wedge in the Azerbaijan–Turkey strategic partnership. Armenia took steps towards normalization in 2008 and 2009. As a result of intensive negotiations, Armenia and Turkey signed two protocols in Zurich in 2009 to open their borders and establish diplomatic relations. However, Turkey did not ratify them, under intense pressure from Azerbaijan. READ MORE

  • May 6, 2025
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