The European Geopolitical Forum

Publications Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook

Key issues:

Special operations continue in Turkey’s south east;

PKK conflict taking on a more complex character;

Many detained in domestic crackdowns;

State-sponsored Kurdish militias involved in massacre;

Islamic threat to secular elite deemed real;

Government hardens position on secular elites;

Clandestine plot to overthrown Turkish government;

Corruption not the key obstacle in Turkey’s EU accession talks.

June 25, 2009

Publications The Big Caucasus. Consequences of the "Five Day War", Threats and Political Prospects

(1 Mb)

Sergey Markedonov, a prescient analyst of the Caucasus, assesses in this Xenophon Paper the possible implications of the August 2008 “five day war”. He initiates a discussion on the region’s “unfreezing of the conflicts” and provides an in-depth description of the existent non-recognised state entities and the other ethno-political conflicts with which the Caucasus is ridden. The author also explores the perspectives of major regional and extra-regional stakeholders in the area and the ambitious policies they deploy at the moment: the Russian stabilisation project, the American “Greater Middle East” project and the European Union social and economic (soft security) project...

May 1, 2009

Publications North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the Maghreb

Key issues:

Maghreb terror threat escalated to regional level;

Fresh round of attacks by Al Qaeda terrorist cells in Algeria;

Government confidence building measures amidst pre-electoral terror threat;

Algeria’s predicament: more terror with fewer insurgents;

High profile terror arrests sweep Morocco;

Lack of confidence in anti-terrorism measures, despite the crackdowns;

Terrorism threat exacerbated by Morocco’s social and economic concerns;

Clashes between militants and the army continue in Mauritania;

Presence of Al Qaeda in Mauritania likely;

Al Qaeda suspects jailed in Tunisia;

Libyan authorities remain vigilant in wake of anticipated attacks;

Maghreb militants prevented from launching attacks in Europe;

Maghreb anti-terrorism measures will require greater coordination.

March 13, 2009

Publications Islamic Extremism as a Political Force

(1 Mb)

October 12, 2006

Maps South Korea’s Global Nuclear Ambitions

Middle East states that have discussed bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements since 2008

January 1, 1970