Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
June - October 2015
By Ben McPherson, Principal Editor and Standing Expert on the Black Sea Region

Key Points:

• Surprising 7 June election results have led to extreme political measures, as President Erdoğan forces a do-over in an attempt to get a better result
• The PKK/government ceasefire breaks down, which offers political opportunity for Erdoğan and the AKP but comes at a steep price:
  • The outbreak of violence has killed between 150-500 soldiers and police, and reportedly over 2,000 PKK members
  • Sources differ on whether Erdoğan or the PKK deserve blame for the re-ignition of hostilities, while all parties attempt to use it to their advantage
• The Kurdish HDP and Selahattin Demirtaş walk a tightrope as they try to maintain their place as an accepted political party, while keeping their base of support
• The situation over the border in Syria threatens to overwhelm all plans, as both the US and Russia make recent moves that are taking the conflict out of Erdoğan"s control

• October 1, 2015

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: Gazprom submits response to EU antitrust ‘statement of objections’, one week after submitting its own proposals in the hope of an out-of-court settlement; Gazprom and Wintershall complete their asset swap; Gazprom and OMV sign preliminary agreement on asset-swap
• Nord Stream: OMV Gazprom signs shareholder agreement with Wintershall, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell for Nord Stream II
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom proposes reduction of Turkish Stream project to two lines with 32 bcm capacity, with negotiations on hold until after Turkish elections on 1st of November
• Ukraine: Uncertainty reigns for Gazprom and Naftogaz as winter approaches
• Asia: Gazprom continues to promote the expansion of the Sakhalin-II LNG export terminal; US sanctions against the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye gas field – clarification; The significance of US sanctions against the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye gas field; Power of Siberia Eastern Route: back to square one?; Gazprom hopes to sign deal on ‘Western Route’ of Power of Siberia in 2016
• Other: Gazprom Export holds its first auction for gas exports, marking the beginning of ‘spot price’ pipeline exports

• October 1, 2015

France challenged Russia to back its words with deeds over fighting Islamic State militants in Syria as major powers on Tuesday struggled to resolve differences between Moscow and the West over ending the civil war in the Middle Eastern country.

• September 30, 2015

The United States and Russia agree on "some fundamental principles" for Syria, the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday, adding that he plans to meet again with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday.

• September 29, 2015

Russia and the United States agreed on Monday to look for a diplomatic end to the Syrian civil war but clashed over the central question of whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad should retain power.

• September 29, 2015

China will prioritize its energy and financial cooperation with Iran, as the recent nuclear deal means there is now even more opportunity to work together, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani.

• September 29, 2015

Issue # 74
09/28/2015
The president says Ukraine needs systemic reforms to counteract Russia's aggression.
An indefinite campaign to block cargo transport bringing goods to Crimea is under way on Ukraine's administrative border with the peninsula. READ MORE

• September 28, 2015

Ukraine and the United States condemned a decision by pro-Russian separatists to ban most foreign aid organizations from parts of rebel-held territory, saying the move violated the Minsk peace agreement.

• September 26, 2015