Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
6 February – 28 February 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• “Turkish Stream” looks increasingly viable as Turkey and Russia move forward with planning the Black Sea pipeline. The project worries supporters of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project, especially Azerbaijan, though experts view the project as part of Turkey’s long term goal of diversifying pipeline projects that cross its territory in order to become an influential transit hub.
• From his prison cell, PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on the armed group to lay down the gun and pick up the ballot. The opportunity is now present for the AKP government to move forward on the Kurdish democratization package.
• Turkey’s muted response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea leaves the peninsula’s 300,000 Tatars without a champion to highlight increasing persecution at the hands of the Moscow-backed government there.
• The Southern Gas Corridor remains viable as Turkey diversifies its participation in pipeline projects. The government reiterates its commitment to TANAP, while Iran feels out future opportunities to partner with Turkey on a revived NABUCCO.

• March 19, 2015

A possible deal over Iran's nuclear program that would phase out economic sanctions against Tehran is unlikely to flood world markets with more oil any time soon, despite Iran's declared intention to claw back market share lost because of the curbs.

• March 17, 2015

China has surpassed Germany to become the world's third largest arms exporter, a Stockholm-based think tank said in a report on Monday.

• March 16, 2015

The German government remains committed to keeping Greece within the euro zone, a spokesman said on Monday, after Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said last week that he could not rule out an accidental exit of the country from the euro zone.

• March 16, 2015

More than 45,000 Russian troops as well as war planes and submarines started military exercises across much of the country on Monday in one of the Kremlin's biggest shows of force since its ties with the West plunged to Cold War-lows.

• March 16, 2015

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: European Commission could present the results of its antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom ‘in a matter of weeks’
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom CEO and Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources visit intended ‘Turkish Stream’ pipeline route; Turkish Botaş receives 10 percent discount on gas imports from Gazprom; Turkish Stream: Pro et Contra
• Ukraine: The ‘winter package’; A new dispute over gas supplies to the Donbass; Gazprom awaits advance payments for March gas supplies as time runs out on the ‘winter package’
• Belarus: Gazprom Transgaz Belarus named ‘top taxpayer’ in Belarus; Belarus settles payments for Russian gas in roubles; Gazprom to invest in Belarusian gas transmission and gas storage
• China: Gazprom seeks Asian investment and loans, receives top credit rating from Chinese agency; Gazprom promises exports to China still on schedule

• March 16, 2015

Germany and other countries want European Union leaders to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday.

• March 14, 2015

Taiwan is spinning away from China's idealized model of "one country, two systems" as a renewed spirit of democracy sweeps across its political sphere, rousing a new cadre of grassroots leaders critical of a shared future with China.

• March 13, 2015