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The European Geopolitical Forum

Friday 16 May 2025

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Context on External Relations
Publications The Increasing Role of the “Trans-Caspian Corridor” in the Global Supply Chain

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

The strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR) has grown in recent years, paralleling geopolitical and economic developments on both global and regional scales. Against the backdrop of global logistics markets adapting to new conditions, the development of this multifaceted transport route, which encompasses transit states in Central Eurasia such as Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Georgia, has become a priority for many nations and multinational corporations. Following prolonged delays in traditional transport and logistics corridors caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trans-Caspian Corridor began to gain prominence in global freight transport. Its importance was further highlighted after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, creating new long-term opportunities for the sustained development of this multimodal trans-regional route. READ MORE

  • January 24, 2025
News Elon Musk believes he got Trump elected. Now he’s coming for Europe

Musk backs European far-right groups at a critical time. Can the EU wield its rules against election interference?

  • January 21, 2025
News How Israel shaped the narrative and its impact on Dutch politics

Israel’s portrayal of violence between Amsterdam locals and Maccabi fans last year led to a debate on anti-Islam and immigration issues.Read more

  • January 21, 2025
News World leaders express hope, fear as Donald Trump returns to White House

Political leaders across the world urge good relations with the new president, with some expressing concern.

  • January 21, 2025
News ‘We will drill, baby, drill’: Why Trump wants US out of Paris climate deal

For a second time, US President Donald Trump promises to pull the US from a global agreement that most countries, except Iran, Libya and Yemen, are party to.

  • January 21, 2025
Publications Azerbaijan’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy

Tabib HUSEYNOV By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

This article explores Azerbaijan’s evolving and increasingly more assertive foreign policy doctrine, which began to take shape following its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Second Karabakh War and was further solidified after its 2023 blitzkrieg operation, which dismantled institutionalized separatism within its territory. Conceptualized through the framework of strategic autonomy, this new doctrine is firmly anchored in realist and neorealist schools of thought, emphasizing pragmatic, interest-driven relationships with major regional and global powers while avoiding geopolitical entanglements. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s quest for strategic autonomy is both a response to external pressures and a means to assert agency within the broader Eurasian security landscape. It also describes Azerbaijan as a “geopolitical interconnector”, capable of punching above its weight in contributing to international security, owing to its strategic location and diplomatic outreach across opposing blocs. The paper enriches scholarly discussions on strategic autonomy with a practical case study, offering a novel analytical framework to understand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and its potential impact on regional and global geopolitics. READ MORE

  • January 17, 2025
Publications Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations

Vasif HUSEYNOV By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On December 25, Azerbaijan ended 2024 in nationwide sorrow and resentment following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The Embraer 190 aircraft, carrying 67 passengers from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, attempted an emergency landing but tragically crashed. Among those aboard were Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz nationals. While 29 people survived, 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, lost their lives. Initial reports attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, but this theory was soon refuted when parts of the aircraft were found to bear shrapnel marks. The following day, Azerbaijani officials revealed that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded near the aircraft mid-flight, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew. This incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russia relations, as Moscow refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy. READ MORE

  • January 17, 2025
News ‘Key to space ambitions’: India succeeds in historic space docking mission

Only the US, Russia and China have previously docked in space. The expertise is critical for advanced missions.

  • January 16, 2025
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