Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 2011

Key Points:

• The TSK mistakenly bombs unarmed Kurdish smugglers near the Iraqi border, adding yet another incident that sets back Turkish-Kurdish relations and possibly fueling further violence.
• Military, economic and political ties are severed between France and NATO ally Turkey following the National Assembly’s vote to move an Armenian genocide bill forward.
• Turkey’s Central Bank sells off over $1 billion in dollars to combat rising inflation, though by month’s end the rate had surpassed 10%.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey agree to a new gas transport and supply deal for the Shah Deniz field, upsetting some in Brussels who feel the new pipeline could undermine the time consuming progress for NABUCCO. READ MORE

• January 21, 2012

The African Energy Indaba, which will be held from February 21 to 23 in Johannesburg, has teamed up with Eastern European regional energy forum Foren, said the South African National Energy Association (Sanea) chairperson Brian Statham.

• January 19, 2012

Iran warns its Arab neighbors that in the event of the introduction of sanctions against the country they should not increase oil production. Otherwise, as promised by representatives of the Islamic Republic, the region may expect catastrophic consequences.

• January 19, 2012

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu Wednesday said both the European Union and Iran have expressed their readiness to resume talks on the nuclear issue.

• January 19, 2012

Japan pledged on Friday to keep cutting purchases of Iranian crude in the clearest public offer of support yet among Asia's big buyers for U.S. efforts to tighten an international noose around Iran in an escalating dispute over its nuclear ambitions.

• January 19, 2012

Americans view China's competition in telecommunications and fiber optics as worrisome enough that policy-makers regularly consider enacting protectionist legislation. The possibility of China using its investment policies to seize the lead in automobile manufacturing also has Washington reacting vigorously.

• January 19, 2012

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd called on China to consider halting its oil purchases from Iran in deference to efforts by the international community of pressuring Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

• January 19, 2012

Issue 10: November-December 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• Gazprom hasn’t given up on its attempts to break into South-East Asian gas markets. Its proposal for a potential trans-Korean pipeline has found support in both North and South Korea. However, North Korea’s change in leadership casts a shadow of doubt over the situation
• Gazprom’s purchase of the remaining 50 percent share in Beltransgaz brought a sigh of relief to European consumers, with transit disputes and Belarusian debts for Russian gas seemingly laid to rest. The purchase is one of several measures designed to bring Russia and Belarus closer together, and demonstrate to Ukraine the potential benefits of selling its gas transportation system to Gazprom
• Nord Stream was launched with great fanfare. The launch has a substantial impact on the current transit situation, with Ukraine looking like the loser of the piece as its transit volumes are increasingly likely to fall
• Gazprom intensified negotiations with Kiev over the possible sale of Ukraine’s gas transit system. Given the sale of Beltransgaz to Gazprom and the announcement that South Stream will go ahead as planned, there is a fair chance that Kiev will give up shares in its gas transport system
• The Turkish national gas pipelines operator, Botaş has refused to renew its 26-year contract to purchase 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas annually, which expired on the 31st of December 2011. Gazprom’s subsequent attempts to circumvent the national supplier have failed: The Turkish Ministry of Energy has refused applications by 26 companies for licences to import Russian gas
• PGNiG has filed an arbitration case against Gazprom for lower gas prices and greater spot-price element in contracts. Even if the Polish company ultimately succeeds in its aim, the process could drag on for months
• Gazprom plans to pay record dividends, estimated to be 200bn Roubles. However, shareholders should not expect such generosity from Gazprom next year: The size of Gazprom’s declared investment programme precludes similar profits next year.

• January 19, 2012