By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 3, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an official visit to Russia to attend the 16^th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, in Sochi (President.az, October 3). Aliyev’s speech at the high-level event touched on multiple topics, including Azerbaijan’s partnership with Russia, the unresolved issue of Karabakh, and regional security in the South Caucasus region, to name a few. Notably, during his remarks, Aliyev declared, “Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan—exclamation point!” which sparked heated discussions in both Azerbaijani and Armenian mass media and online (Turan Agency, October 4). READ MORE

• October 28, 2019

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The eight and half years of Syrian conflict saw various, sometimes very strange, ups and downs. Everything started as an uprising against the authoritarian state with demands for democratic reforms. Later the situation transformed into civil war with growing influence of foreign fighters. In 2014, the Islamic State entered the stage making President Assad less evil for the West. Then Russia intervened militarily and changed the course of the war effectively saving Assad. In 2016 and 2018 Turkey launched two military operations taking under control parts of North-Western Syria. READ MORE

• October 28, 2019

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Karabakh conflict settlement process continues to interest regional security pundits. Yet, despite the growing optimism after the "Velvet revolution" in Armenia, in recent months, the prevailing mood has been more pessimistic. The two meetings between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the beginning of 2019, and negotiations at the level of the foreign ministers, did not result in any breakthrough. The significant decrease in the number of incidents along the line of contact and on the Armenia-Azerbaijan international border since October 2018 is a positive step, although one can also see recent increases in clashes resulting in casualties on both sides. READ MORE

• October 16, 2019

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE

• October 16, 2019

An Iranian-owned oil tanker was struck, probably by missiles, in the Red Sea off Saudi Arabia’s coast on Friday, Iranian media said, an incident that if confirmed will stoke tension in a region rattled by attacks on tankers and oil sites since May.

• October 11, 2019

Gabon has told OPEC it will comply fully with its pledge to cut oil output under a 2019 supply deal between the exporter group and rivals such as Russia, in the latest sign of an OPEC push to improve compliance before its next meeting in December.

• October 11, 2019

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin discussed in a phone call Turkey’s planned operation into northeastern Syria, the Turkish presidency said on Wednesday, as Ankara gears to launch its cross-border offensive.

• October 9, 2019

OPEC has granted Nigeria a higher oil output target under an OPEC-led deal to limit oil supply in a move unannounced by the group, following efforts by Africa’s largest exporter to tweak the agreement to accommodate its expanding oil industry.

• October 9, 2019