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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Saturday 10 May 2025

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Context on External Relations
News Half of UK exporters say Houthi attacks in Red Sea disrupting business

The British Chambers of Commerce says 55 percent of exporters report higher shipping costs and delays.

  • February 27, 2024
News Ukraine demands Poland punish protesting farmers for dumping grain

Polish farmers spilled 160 tonnes of Ukrainian produce from train wagons to protest against ‘unfair competition’.

  • February 27, 2024
News ‘Lawfare’ on Israel’s war on Gaza reaches Germany. Will the case succeed?

Top German officials, including Chancellor Scholz, are being sued for allegedly ‘aiding genocide’ in a case that raises awareness and loads pressure.

  • February 27, 2024
News France’s Macron does not rule out Europeans sending troops to Ukraine

French president opens door to European nations sending troops to Ukraine, although he cautioned that there was no consensus at this stage.

  • February 27, 2024
News Hungary ratifies Sweden’s NATO bid, clearing final obstacle to membership

Vote by Hungarian parliament ends more than 18 months of delays.

  • February 27, 2024
News Hungary parliament elects new president following scandal

Parliament approves appointment of Tamas Sulyok, 67, a Constitutional Court chief, to replace Katalin Novak.

  • February 27, 2024
Publications Azerbaijan is not de-coupling from the West

Vusal GULIYEV By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Over the past two years, since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Azerbaijan’s foreign and security policies have drawn varying interpretations from experts and political observers. The delicate balancing act pursued by Baku between competing global powers while safeguarding the country’s national interests and restoring its territorial integrity has appeared as an intriguing case for the studies of international relations. Amidst the evolving dynamics of regional geopolitics, Azerbaijan’s recent engagements with Western counterparts underscore its unwavering commitment to maintaining robust relations with the West. Despite the complexities of navigating relations with neighbouring powers, Azerbaijan remains steadfast in its pursuit of multilateral or, as better known in the Azerbaijani discourse, balanced approach in foreign policy.
Many experts are still debating how the Azerbaijani government succeeded to dismantle the separatist regime in Karabakh without provoking a clash with Russia, widely known to be the major protector of this regime. In November 2023, during an international conference in a European city attended by the author of this article, Armenian experts critiqued the collaboration between Azerbaijan and the Western powers (i.e., the EU and United States) in September 2023 to dismantle to the separatist regime, aiming to diminish Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. Interestingly, some of these experts now suggest that Baku has aligned with Moscow to penalize Armenia’s pro-Western government. This situation underscores the complexity of Azerbaijan's foreign policy, often susceptible to misinterpretation. READ MORE

  • February 24, 2024
Publications False expectations

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Ever since the end of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, every meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders has been portrayed as raising significant expectations of some breakthrough. In 2021, all looked to Russia, where Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev met twice in January and November. Starting from 2022, the geography of hope for a breakthrough moved to Brussels, where Pashinyan and Aliyev met in April, May, and August. Even the large-scale Azerbaijani incursion into Armenia in September 2022, less than two weeks after the August 31 trilateral summit in Brussels, did not appear to diminish the hopes that every meeting may bring Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to peace. In late September 2022, experts and policy officials started to speak about possibly signing a peace deal by the end of 2022. Even the absence of a peace agreement and the start of the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in December 2022 did not shake the belief in some magic after each Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiation encounter. In the first half of 2023, the center of gravity of expectations shifted towards Washington DC as Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held two rounds of negotiations in May and June. Even the disregard by Azerbaijan towards the measures of International Court of Justice on the blockade, the establishment of block post on the Lachin corridor in April, and the complete cut of Nagorno–Karabakh from the world in June 2023 somehow did not significantly decrease the hopes that Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations would bring results soon. READ MORE

  • February 24, 2024
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