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EGF
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Tuesday 20 May 2025

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Context on External Relations
News Does Russia have enough soldiers for war?

Russia’s government passes a new electronic draft law in advance of a planned spring offensive.

  • May 1, 2023
News Ukraine says its air defences shoot down 15 Russian missiles

Three missiles get through and cause no casualties, Kyiv says, but one person is reported killed in separate attacks in Kherson.

  • May 1, 2023
News Ukraine war: Did Putin learn from Bush’s Iraq horrors?

From Wagner’s crimes and fake pretexts to the UN’s inaction, the Iraq invasion offered a preview of the Ukraine war. But not all is the same.

  • May 1, 2023
Publications Geopolitical Choices of Armenia amidst the Transformation of Post-Cold War Global Order

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union have ushered in hopes of humanity's happy and harmonious future. The ideas such as "End of history" (Fukuyama, 1992) became very popular both within academic circles and policymakers. There was a widespread belief that the entire planet would live under liberal democracy, and interstate conflicts will become bad memories from history. The last decade of the 20thcentury seemed to confirm those hopes. The EU and NATO enlargement, market reforms informer socialist states, cooperative relations between Russia and the West, and the growing US –China economic cooperation have seemingly justified hopes for establishing the world united under the banner of liberal democracy. READ MORE

  • April 27, 2023
Publications The Place of Uyghur and Kurdish Issues in Sino-Turkish Relations

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Visiting Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of Boğaziçi University

In late December 2022, Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, raised the Uyghur issue at an end-of-the-year press briefing by questioning whether Xi Jinping’s government had failed to keep a promise made five years ago. The Uyghur issue concerns events that began in 2017, in which the accusations against the Chinese government’s crackdown on thousands of Uyghurs in detention camps under the guise of an anti-terrorist operation has started. The promise of which Çavuşoğlu spoke was an unfettered visit by a Turkish to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). However, that promise has not been kept because of the myriad of requirements placed on the visit by China, such as predetermining the places to be visited. READ MORE

  • April 27, 2023
Publications Israel and Azerbaijan: Trusted Friends and Reliable Partners

Georgia By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defence cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.
After decades of keeping a low diplomatic profile vis-à-vis Israel, in November 2022 the Azerbaijani parliament approved a bill on opening an embassy in Tel Aviv. This was a historic decision as, until then, Azerbaijan had consistently rejected Israeli overtures to send a permanent ambassador, despite the opening of an Israeli embassy in Baku in August 1993. It took almost 30 years for Azerbaijan to reciprocate since the country’s leadership did not want to alienate other Muslim-majority states or provoke the Iranian authorities, who blamed Israel for worsening relations along the Baku-Tehran axis. However, in the wake of the 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords on diplomatic normalization between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, followed by the exchange of Israeli and Turkish ambassadors two years later, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev felt that the time was right to follow suit. READ MORE

  • April 15, 2023
Publications Prospects for Armenia-Turkey Normalization

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The devastating earthquake in Turkey, and Armenia's decision to provide humanitarian assistance and send rescue teams, have however opened a new window of opportunity for revitalizing the stalled [normalization] process". "Turkey assessed the Armenian government's gesture positively, and the Armenian foreign minister's visit to Turkey made it possible to advance the implementation of agreements reached in 2022. And yet, "earthquake diplomacy" will not lead to short-term breakthroughs in bilateral relations.
Devastating earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes struck southern Turkey on 6 February 2023. By 10 April, the death toll had passed 50,000, while the number of wounded passed 100,000. More than 12,000 buildings were destroyed, and large-scale rescue operations were underway. Besides the immense human tragedy, the earthquake had domestic and foreign policy implications for Turkey. The country faces crucial presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 14 May. READ MORE

  • April 15, 2023
Publications A Political DEPREM? The Impact of the Earthquake on Turkiye’s Domestic Politics

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

2023 marks the centennial of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, when the Turkish Grand National Assembly led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk proclaimed the establishment of the republic and the abolishment of the Caliphate that ruled Ottoman Turks for six centuries. For decades, the Kemalists and military-backed governments ruled Türkiye with a secular iron hand. It wasn’t until 2002, when the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power that Kemalists’ monopoly on power was challenged, ending decades of unstable coalition governments. AKP’s early years were relatively peaceful, as the country experienced fast economic growth and continued openness to the West. However, as the authorities began facing domestic and regional challenges, illiberal democracy started to consolidate itself in Türkiye. In 2013, protests erupted in opposition to building a shopping mall in Istanbul’s Gezi Park. The government violently cracked down on the movement and began limiting civil liberties and curtailing press freedoms. Moreover, a failed coup attempt in 2016 consolidated authoritarianism in the country. READ MORE

  • April 15, 2023
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