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The European Geopolitical Forum

Tuesday 16 December 2025

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Context on Energy
News France detains Russian ‘shadow’ tanker to disrupt war in Ukraine

Moscow has called France’s detention of the ship, and arrest of the captain, an act of piracy.

  • October 3, 2025
News How much of Europe’s oil and gas still comes from Russia?

In 2021, Russia supplied the EU with 45 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil. By 2024, these values dropped to 19 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

  • October 3, 2025
News Ukraine strikes choke off Russian oil exports and fuel supplies

Evidence mounts that Ukraine's two-pronged approach is working. Russian regions are short of fuel and export revenues are suffering.

  • September 19, 2025
News EU hits Russian oil, shadow fleet with new sanctions over Ukraine war

European Union says move amounts to one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date linked to the war.

  • July 18, 2025
Publications How Will the Ukraine Crisis Shape the World Energy Market?

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russian military aggression against Ukraine launched almost two months ago has clearly signalled a change in the traditional world order and triggered the unprecedented reaction of the Western coalition led by the U.S. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has left the global energy market uncertain, threatening to cause severe energy shortages and oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel.
Since the Russian intervention in Ukraine kicked off, numerous sanctions packages have been imposed on Russia, hitting mostly financial institutes and state-owned companies. This resulted in Western countries’ consolidation, and the collective refusal of Russia-related transactions and import of Russian natural gas, oil, and coal. READ MORE

  • May 12, 2022
News UPDATE 1-Russia says it has paid Belarus full compensation for tainted oil -RIA

Russia’s ambassador to Belarus said on Wednesday that Moscow had fully compensated Minsk for the 2019 contaminated oil crisis, Russian news agencies reported, a statement that Belarus subsequently questioned.

  • February 10, 2021
News Germany says further sanctions against Russia must target right people

Further sanctions against Russia need to target the right people, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Wednesday, adding that cancelling the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would merely push Russia closer to China.

  • February 10, 2021
Publications The Role of the ESP in Gazprom’s European Sales Strategy

Jack Sharples By Jack Sharples, PhD, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

Gazprom Export launched its Electronic Sales Platform (ESP) in the context of an increasingly competitive European market. Sales volumes have grown, and have averaged 2 bcm per month since April 2019. As a result of this growth, the ESP is now a key part of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: It generates additional sales revenues, optimises Gazprom’s use of is physical export infrastructure, and provides a constant flow of valuable market data that informs Gazprom’s wider sales strategy. Sales are largely concentrated in four countries, while deliveries are split between Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian routes. ESP sales prices closely track European hub prices for comparable products, and the sales volumes show that Gazprom’s counterparties consider the ESP an attractive offering. The operation of the ESP highlights the crucial element of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: The importance of nuanced optimisation, as Gazprom seeks to maximise its sales volumes without placing excessive downward pressure on European hub prices that would impact revenues from its hub-indexed LTC portfolio. Overall, the ESP demonstrates how far Gazprom has evolved in the past decade, as it seeks to retain market share on an increasingly competitive European market. READ MORE

  • December 22, 2020
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