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The European Geopolitical Forum

Tuesday 24 March 2026

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Context on Security
News Smotrich urges Israel to annex southern Lebanon as assault intensifies

Israel’s far-right finance minister says Litani River must be ‘the new Israeli border’, as attacks on Lebanon ramp up.

  • March 24, 2026
News US-Israel war on Iran: What’s happening on day 25 of attacks?

Trump claims talks on with Iran, as he holds off on energy attacks, but Tehran denies any negotiations as US-Israel attacks on Iran, and Iran’s strikes on Gulf nations, continue.

  • March 24, 2026
News Where do reported US-Iran ‘negotiations’ leave Israel?

Israeli analysts describe confusion after US President Trump unexpectedly shifts from threatened strikes on Iran to talks.

  • March 24, 2026
News Despite Trump’s peace talk claims, US-Israeli attacks continue to hit Iran

Huge explosions were heard in Tehran and other cities, as Iran denied it held talks with the US to end the war.

  • March 24, 2026
Publications Early Perspectives on How War in Iran Might Spillover in the South Caucasus




On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

  • March 19, 2026
Publications The Caucasus Front: Azerbaijan and Iran in the Expanding Gulf War

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

  • March 19, 2026
Publications Expanding Global Jihadi Footprint: Islamic State and al Qaeda in South Asia and West Africa

Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA By Bibhu Prasad ROUTRAY, PhD, Director & Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

As the war in Iran and Ukraine rages, together with China’s continued expansion, noticeably in the South China Sea but also in Myanmar/Burma, major global players are preoccupied to the extent that non-state extremist actors have virtually free rein to expand. The global terror groups Islamic State and al Qaeda sense a window of opportunity to consolidate in their current strongholds and push beyond. Much of this organisational expansion and accompanying violence is taking place in Asia and West Africa. However, if the wars drag on, limiting security responses of the major nations to the evolving threats, such violence can potentially spread to Europe and even the United States. READ MORE

  • March 19, 2026
News Drone sparks fire at UAE oil site as Gulf takes more hits amid Iran war

The Fujairah oil hub has been hit repeatedly by Iranian drones as the US-Israeli war continues to ignite instability in the region.

  • March 17, 2026
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