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The European Geopolitical Forum

Thursday 23 October 2025

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Context on Energy
Publications Assessing the European Energy Transition against Evolving Geopolitical Challenges




In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan). WATCH INTERVIEW

  • October 22, 2025
News France detains Russian ‘shadow’ tanker to disrupt war in Ukraine

Moscow has called France’s detention of the ship, and arrest of the captain, an act of piracy.

  • October 3, 2025
News How much of Europe’s oil and gas still comes from Russia?

In 2021, Russia supplied the EU with 45 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil. By 2024, these values dropped to 19 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

  • October 3, 2025
News Ukraine strikes choke off Russian oil exports and fuel supplies

Evidence mounts that Ukraine's two-pronged approach is working. Russian regions are short of fuel and export revenues are suffering.

  • September 19, 2025
Publications Advancing Azerbaijan-China Energy Cooperation within the SCO Framework

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE

  • September 12, 2025
News What’s next for oil as OPEC+ and Trump shake the market?

OPEC+ is opening the oil taps again, while Donald Trump’s tariffs target Russian crude buyers.Read more

  • August 14, 2025
News EU hits Russian oil, shadow fleet with new sanctions over Ukraine war

European Union says move amounts to one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date linked to the war.

  • July 18, 2025
Publications India-EU Relations: Charting New Vistas for Climate Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

A stronger EU-India partnership on technology transfer, climate finance, green transition, and sustainability can help bridge the North-South divide.
Among the host of commitments that found their way into the Leaders’ Statement during the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India in February 2025 was the need for greater cooperation across a number of areas pertaining to climate change. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and von der Leyen also reaffirmed their commitment to promote “a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” in the wake of the European Union joining the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) in 2023. Within the IPOI, an Indian initiative, climate change has been a significant area of focus. While the EU and India are working to address the challenges in their bilateral relations, including finalizing a much-delayed free trade agreement, climate cooperation in the Indo-Pacific can become a defining strategic initiative between the two. The prevailing heat waves in Europe and Indian cities, and its implications for livelihoods, economies, and conflict, make such cooperation even more necessary. READ MORE

  • July 9, 2025
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