By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Air incursions, military drills, and escalating hybrid warfare hint at a new and alarming level of Russian aggression. Is it just for show?
Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports. Zapad-2025 is an established Kremlin method of baring its military teeth to its near-neighbours. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State”. They have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression. READ MORE

• October 7, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged a “significant” response to “Europe’s militarisation” and says the hysteria around his country potentially attacking NATO is “nonsense”.

• October 3, 2025

South Korean military fired dozens of warning shots at a North Korean vessel that crossed the contested Northern Limit Line sea boundary.

• September 26, 2025

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters the decision would create a ‘credible deterrence’ against Russia.

• September 19, 2025

In an uneven friendship, Moscow has gained up to $9.8bn worth of arms, plus troops on the battlefield, says German study. North Korea may have received less than $1bn.

• September 19, 2025

In late August, France, Germany and the United Kingdom initiated a 30-day process to reimpose sanctions in the absence of a negotiated deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

• September 19, 2025

The key NATO front-line state is bolstering its defence as the threat of a Russian incursion into its territory grows.

• September 19, 2025

Australian PM Albanese fails to sign mutual defence pact a week after also failing to sign security deal with Vanuatu.

• September 17, 2025