Issue 9: October 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• In a somewhat surprising development for Gazprom, Turkish state-owned gas pipeline operator, Botaş, has declined to extend its contract for 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. The move is seen by some as an attempt by Ankara to obtain gas price discounts.
• The Polish state-owned energy company, PGNiG, has joined its European counterparts in pressing for lower gas prices from Gazprom. Warsaw wants to change the gas price formula and tie it to spot gas market prices.
• Another recent, unpleasant surprise for Gazprom was the launch of an investigation into its European partners carried out by the European Commission (EC). Officially, the EC investigation concerns the potential violation of antimonopoly legislation, although some commentators see the investigation as an attempt to strengthen the position of European consumers in their negotiations with the Russian gas giant.
• Belarus has agreed terms with Gazprom for the sale of the remaining 50 percent stake in Beltransgaz. In return, Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko, is demanding guarantees of transit through the Belarusian pipeline network and a reduction in gas import prices to the level of internal Russian prices.
• Ukraine President, Viktor Yanukovich’s attempt to destroy his political rival, Yulia Timoshenko, is playing into Gazprom’s hands. As Brussels toughens its stance towards Kiev, Ukraine is forced to be more amenable in its negotiations with Russia, especially those over the future of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System (GTS)
• Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to China failed to produce a breakthrough in negotiations over the Altai gas pipeline and potential Russian gas deliveries to China. The price of gas exports via the Altai pipeline remains the main stumbling block, as Gazprom is currently seeking other ways of exporting gas to China, namely via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline.

• November 13, 2011

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 2011
Key Points:

• Turkey’s economy continues to flourish in comparison with other developed economies on its European periphery. The country gained over a million jobs and clocked an 11 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2011 while its GDP grew by 8.8 percent.
• Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, leant his support to the Turkish accession bid to the EU, saying that the EU should be “fair to Turkey in the negotiation process.”
• Ankara continues its condemnation of Syrian violence against opposition and activist members, and according to a number of reports, is now hosting a group of former Syrian soldiers called the Free Syrian Army.
• A large earthquake in the Van province has exacerbated Kurdish-Turkish relations with claims of bias being leveled at the government for the manner of its response to the disaster in the mainly Kurdish region.
• Turkish Security Forces (TSK) continue their assault on PKK strongholds in Iraq after a devastating attack in mid-October that left 24 TSK soldiers dead. On October 28, police arrested a number of pro-Kurdish BDP Party members in and around Istanbul, including member of the intra-party constitutional commission, Buşra Ersanli.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey finally conclude a natural gas supply agreement following two years of negotiations, while BOTAS informs Gazprom that it will not renew a key existing gas supply contract with Russia.

• November 13, 2011

Russia is ready to build more nuclear reactors in Iran, its nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko said Thursday despite renewed fears that Tehran is seeking to produce nuclear weapons.

• November 10, 2011

Pakistan and Turkmenistan have reportedly reached bilateral agreement over the price of gas through the planned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline.

• November 9, 2011

Nato has embraced many former Soviet bloc countries but Georgia remains for now just a partner because of its 2008 war with Russia.

• November 9, 2011

After 13 years of planning and two years of construction, the Nord Stream pipeline will deliver its first supplies of Russian gas to an estimated 26 million homes in the EU on Tuesday.

• November 8, 2011

India and Canada want to triple their bilateral trade and are banking on alliances and investments in energy sector. Both countries are aiming at increasing bilateral trade to $ 15 billion by 2015 from $ 4.2 billion in 2010.

• November 5, 2011

New Delhi, Nov 5 (IANS) Amid rising concerns over atomic safety in India in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster in Japan, a team from US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will be holding talks with their Indian counterparts and visit nuclear installations later this month.

• November 5, 2011