Publications
The Role of the ESP in Gazprom’s European Sales Strategy
By Jack Sharples, PhD, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas
Gazprom Export launched its Electronic Sales Platform (ESP) in the context of an increasingly competitive European market. Sales volumes have grown, and have averaged 2 bcm per month since April 2019. As a result of this growth, the ESP is now a key part of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: It generates additional sales revenues, optimises Gazprom’s use of is physical export infrastructure, and provides a constant flow of valuable market data that informs Gazprom’s wider sales strategy. Sales are largely concentrated in four countries, while deliveries are split between Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian routes. ESP sales prices closely track European hub prices for comparable products, and the sales volumes show that Gazprom’s counterparties consider the ESP an attractive offering. The operation of the ESP highlights the crucial element of Gazprom’s European sales strategy: The importance of nuanced optimisation, as Gazprom seeks to maximise its sales volumes without placing excessive downward pressure on European hub prices that would impact revenues from its hub-indexed LTC portfolio. Overall, the ESP demonstrates how far Gazprom has evolved in the past decade, as it seeks to retain market share on an increasingly competitive European market. READ MORE
Publications
New Twists in Armenian-Russian Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Armenia-Russia relations have been the cornerstone of Armenian foreign policy since Armenia’s independence in September 1991. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union Armenia found itself in a multi-dimensional crisis – the war in Karabakh, a blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and steep economic decline. In those circumstances, Armenia had no alternative but to forge a strategic alliance with Russia. Thus, Yerevan signed the Collective Security Treaty in May 1992, Russian border troops were deployed along the Armenia–Turkey and Armenia–Iran borders, and in 1995 Russia took over the former Soviet military base in Gyumri. READ MORE
Publications
Is Armenia’s Democracy on Borrowed Time?
By Anna Ohanyan, PhD, non-resident senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia Program of Carnegie
Reeling from a military defeat in a war with Turkey-backed Azerbaijan, can Armenia’s hard-won democracy withstand domestic political turmoil?
The recent agreement to cease hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh has created a new status quo in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has recovered territories it lost in the 1990s when the conflict over the enclave first erupted, in the shadow of the Soviet collapse. A new modus vivendi between Russia and Turkey is shaping regional geopolitics. Once shaky authoritarian rule in Azerbaijan is now more deeply entrenched. It can also count on the support of Turkey, another increasingly authoritarian player in the neighbourhood. This stronger and deeper authoritarian presence in the region will place significant stress on nascent democracies in Georgia and Armenia for years to come. READ MORE
Publications
Economic Consequences of the Second Karabakh War for Armenia
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The second Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of its territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate. READ MORE
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