By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On July 12, the Azerbaijani border region of Tovuz and the Tavush region on the Armenian side became the new epicentre of clashes between the armed forces of the two states, with the involvement of heavy artillery and unmanned aerial drones. The intensive exchanges of fire resulted in the deaths of over a dozen military personnel and the destruction of local infrastructure on both sides. On July 14, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense notably confirmed the deaths of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev as a result of artillery shelling by Armenian military units. READ MORE

• July 22, 2020

Ukraine said on Friday it would conduct military exercises, which it hoped NATO partners would join, as an answer to planned Russian exercises in the Caucasus, and an insurance against any resulting escalation on its eastern borders.

• July 17, 2020

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, Russia has made recently fresh efforts to push forward the phased approach solution in Nagorno Karabakh. This solution is based on the so-called “Madrid principles and six basic elements” first publicized by the Russian, US, and French Presidents’ July 2009 statement. However, the phased approach solution traces back to late 1997 when apparent push by OSCE Co-Chair states to reach an agreement resulted in the resignation of the first President of Armenia. After 6 years break, this logic again appeared to have dominated the settlement process since 2004. Six elements envisage the withdrawal of Nagorno Karabakh Republic’s forces from more than 50 percent of its territory, deployment of peacekeeping forces, and the final determination of Karabakh status by legally binding expression of will. READ MORE

• June 2, 2020

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The April 21, 2020 statements of Russian foreign Minister Lavrov brought back Nagorno Karabakh issue to the forefront of expert discussions. However, Russian foreign minister did not reveal something special or unexpected. He just reiterated what pundits following the conflict settlement process had already known. Since May 2018 negotiations have been based on a phased approach. It envisaged the return of some territories to Azerbaijan and indefinite postponement of the determination of the Nagorno Karabakh final status. READ MORE

• May 28, 2020

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite the worldwide standstill brought by the COVID–19 pandemic, conflict resolutions remain among the key priorities of the international community. This is true for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict too. Without going deep into history it’s worthy to recall the key milestones of the conflict. The Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region declared its intention to leave Soviet Azerbaijan and join Soviet Armenia in February 1988. In the final days of the Soviet Union, Nagorno Karabakh organized a referendum and declared its independence. Almost immediately Azerbaijan launched a military attack against Nagorno Karabakh seeking to crash the newly established republic. READ MORE

• May 12, 2020

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the world mobilizes to combat the COVID - 19 it sometimes appears that the pandemic has stopped geopolitics. Many urgent topics of international relations have been put aside. However, sooner or later the world will return to normality, and the old problems will re-emerge. Coronavirus has not decreased US - China rivalry, to the contrary the Post COVID-19 world will likely be characterized by a growing confrontation between China and the US. Among the problems waiting their turn to re-emerge in the geopolitical landscape in the post-Soviet space is the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. READ MORE

• April 30, 2020

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The trilateral military cooperation, begun in November 2017, has all the necessary components to become decisive for the three countries in the eastern Mediterranean in the long-term. In addition, the US is fully behind the three countries, sending a clear signal to Ankara not to provoke conflict in the region.
Turkey, which is still a member of NATO, is not in a position to prevent Israel from cooperating with NATO, although such cooperation is a thorn in the side of Turkey. Although Cypriot military exercises with Israel upset Turkey, it cannot prevent the two countries from cooperating. That is why we see a new military architecture in the Eastern Mediterranean, which will shape the security relations of the three countries in the coming years. READ MORE

• March 26, 2020

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

In recent weeks the Syrian province of Idlib has been transformed into the hot spot of the Middle East. There were frantic flows of calls, meetings and visits between Russian, Turkish and Western officials. Some were seeking to deescalate the situation and prevent direct confrontation between Russian and Turkish troops, others were trying to use this situation and drive a wedge between Moscow and Ankara. Everything is pretty much clear – Turkey wants to keep Idlib under its control and use it as a tool to secure its influence in post–war Syria, while Russia is interested to finish the active phase of military operations and speed up the political process. READ MORE

• February 25, 2020