Publications
Escalation along Armenia – Azerbaijan Border: Key Reasons and Possible Scenarios 
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
On July 12, Azerbaijani forces attempted to take over an Armenian post along the Northern part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan international border. Repelled by the Armenian units, they turned to cannon shelling and the extensive use of UAVs. After two days of active clashes, the situation was calm on July 15, when new, albeit unsuccessful, attempts to seize Armenian positions were made on early morning of July 16. While five days of hostilities did not bring significant changes on the ground, it might be useful to understand the key reasons behind these recent military activities, as well as to assess possible scenarios for the future. READ MORE
Publications
Trends and Factors Contributing to the July Border Clashes Between Azerbaijan and Armenia 
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On July 12, the Azerbaijani border region of Tovuz and the Tavush region on the Armenian side became the new epicentre of clashes between the armed forces of the two states, with the involvement of heavy artillery and unmanned aerial drones. The intensive exchanges of fire resulted in the deaths of over a dozen military personnel and the destruction of local infrastructure on both sides. On July 14, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense notably confirmed the deaths of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev as a result of artillery shelling by Armenian military units. READ MORE
Publications
Russia–Turkey Strategic Rivalry in the South Caucasus By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, Russia has made recently fresh efforts to push forward the phased approach solution in Nagorno Karabakh. This solution is based on the so-called “Madrid principles and six basic elements” first publicized by the Russian, US, and French Presidents’ July 2009 statement. However, the phased approach solution traces back to late 1997 when apparent push by OSCE Co-Chair states to reach an agreement resulted in the resignation of the first President of Armenia. After 6 years break, this logic again appeared to have dominated the settlement process since 2004. Six elements envisage the withdrawal of Nagorno Karabakh Republic’s forces from more than 50 percent of its territory, deployment of peacekeeping forces, and the final determination of Karabakh status by legally binding expression of will. READ MORE
Publications
What’s Next in Karabakh… By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The April 21, 2020 statements of Russian foreign Minister Lavrov brought back Nagorno Karabakh issue to the forefront of expert discussions. However, Russian foreign minister did not reveal something special or unexpected. He just reiterated what pundits following the conflict settlement process had already known. Since May 2018 negotiations have been based on a phased approach. It envisaged the return of some territories to Azerbaijan and indefinite postponement of the determination of the Nagorno Karabakh final status. READ MORE
Publications
Why “The Land for Promise” Formula Will Never Be Accepted By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Despite the worldwide standstill brought by the COVID–19 pandemic, conflict resolutions remain among the key priorities of the international community. This is true for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict too. Without going deep into history it’s worthy to recall the key milestones of the conflict. The Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region declared its intention to leave Soviet Azerbaijan and join Soviet Armenia in February 1988. In the final days of the Soviet Union, Nagorno Karabakh organized a referendum and declared its independence. Almost immediately Azerbaijan launched a military attack against Nagorno Karabakh seeking to crash the newly established republic. READ MORE
