Publications
Turkish Policy in the South Caucasus and Relations with Russia 
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Turkey-Russia relations are typically based on compartmentalization. They simultaneously compete and cooperate in various regions, separating the areas in which their interests are overlapping from those where they are in competition. This concept was the base of their competing relations in Syria until the demise of Assad regime in 2024, and mutual interactions in post-Gaddafi Libya. Another aspect of compartmentalization is the conscious separation of economy and geopolitics: they have been developing economic cooperation while competing in geopolitics. Economic cooperation is significant for both Russia and Turkey, considering Russian gas and oil imported by Turkey and the construction by the Russian state nuclear energy company ROSATOM of a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, southern Turkey. READ MORE
Publications
The 2025 Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska: Geopolitical Implications Amid the Ukraine War
By Yunis GURBANOV, PhD, Senior Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku
The Alaska summit highlighted the discordant divergence between Washington and Moscow after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and exposed the limits of summit diplomacy in the context of a grinding war. President Trump reaffirmed America's formal commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and NATO's deterrent stance, but his words were typically qualified by continual calls for a "realistic settlement" with Moscow. This contrasted sharply with the State Department’s prior line, suggesting internal tensions within Washington’s approach. President Putin, for his part, sought to capitalize on these uncertainties: he promoted Russia's military successes as irreversible facts on the ground, demanded Western recognition of occupied land, and framed Moscow's actions as a defensive reaction against NATO "encirclement. READ MORE
Publications
Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Uneasy neighbours at the best of times, open hostility from the Kremlin is pushing Azerbaijan closer to Ukraine.
Russian drones attacked an oil depot in Odesa in Ukraine on August 17. That’s not unusual, but that night’s target was notable in one important sense — the Kremlin struck high-profile infrastructure owned by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company. This was no accident. Russia had attacked the same SOCAR facility in Ukraine on August 8. Taken together with a series of other events, it has become clear that Putin’s men are sending a message. That comes at some risk to themselves and potential benefits for Ukraine. These weren’t the first or even the most serious Russian acts of hostility against the energy-rich South Caucasian nation. On Christmas Day, Russian missile batteries shot down a scheduled Azerbaijan Airways plane, killing 38 people. The incident caused uproar, not least because while the missile firing may have resulted from mistaken identity, Russian air controllers refused the badly damaged aircraft permission to land. READ MORE
Publications
Will Trump’s Tariffs Upend the India-US Relationship? 
By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
New Delhi likely hopes that this phase of uncertainty is only temporary.
Shock and disappointment pervade policy circles in India following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50 percent tariff on Indian exports to the United States. Although India has reacted cautiously with its “wait and watch” policy so far, it is expected that a more assertive response will emerge in the coming days and weeks. India and the United States have shared strong strategic ties for more than two decades. Despite highs and lows, the two countries have navigated their strategic partnership in the realm of security, space, trade, energy and technology. Trump’s tariff decision has the potential to derail a relationship built through years of negotiations and investment by both sides. READ MORE
Publications
U.S. policy in the South Caucasus: Keep Turkey in, Russia down and Iran out 
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On August 8, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed a memorandum of understanding with seven points, affirming their commitment to finalize a peace agreement. At the same time, bilateral agreements were signed between the U.S. and each country separately. According to Narek Sukiasyan, a research fellow at the Center for Culture and Civilization Studies at Yerevan State University, the clauses in the memorandum carry considerable geopolitical weight. Most directly, they mandate the disbanding of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which was co-chaired by the U.S., France and Russia to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict peacefully. Baku has marginalized the group since 2020.
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