By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the geopolitics of the former Soviet space. As Russia – West relations have hit the lowest point since the end of the Cold War, or perhaps even since the Caribbean nuclear crisis of 1962, the newly independent states face tough choices in their foreign policy. Can they find a balance between Russia and the West, and if not, should they choose Russia or the West? It seemed that this conundrum should not apply to Armenia. The country is a member of all Russian-led organizations in the post-Soviet space – Collective Security Treaty Organization, Eurasian Economic Union, and Armenia hosts a Russian military base and Russian border troops. Thus, many may argue that Armenia has already chosen to be with Russia, and the war in Ukraine would complicate Armenian efforts to develop relations with the West, which Yerevan has done quite successfully in the last three decades. READ MORE

• December 5, 2023

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On November 16, Baku cancelled a meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan scheduled to take place on November 20 in Washington. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry asserted that, under the current circumstances, it is not possible to proceed with US-mediated peace negotiations. The statement alluded to US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien’s comments during “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh” hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe on November 15. The hearing highlighted a growing break between Baku and Washington on how to proceed with the peace talks. Azerbaijan has called for “more regional solutions to regional problems,” while the United States and European Union hope to maintain influence over negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. READ MORE

• December 5, 2023

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Amid the escalating Gaza war, a striking absence marks the regional conflict landscape: the non-involvement of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including Iran and its proxies. Nearly six weeks into the war, these forces have consistently communicated their decision to remain on the sidelines. This inaction comes into sharp focus against the backdrop of Iran’s strategy to leverage non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas in its proxy warfare. While Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified their stance in a much-anticipated speech a month into the conflict, the impact of this abstention is profound. Israel, grappling with internal divisions and security vulnerabilities heightened by Hamas’s attacks, finds itself in a precarious position not seen in decades. READ MORE

• December 5, 2023

The Houthis seem to have made a strategic shift towards maritime operations to ramp up pressure on the US and Israel.

• December 4, 2023

China says that the United States has undermined ‘regional peace and stability’.

• December 4, 2023

Concern is growing over Ukraine’s ability to continue its defence against Russia should delays of Western funds persist.

• December 4, 2023

Israel has issued an evacuation map asking Palestinians to move south as it intensifies attacks on the besieged enclave.

• December 4, 2023

Ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania say presence of Sergey Lavrov risks legitimising Russian war in Ukraine.

• November 29, 2023