Publications
Georgian–Turkish Relations and their Impact on Russia 
By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
In a nutshell, friendly relations between Georgia and Turkey are not a deterrent against potential Russian aggression against Georgia. Russia can always impose a blockade of Georgia’s Black Sea coast by using its naval assets in Sevastopol, Crimea and Ochamchire in occupied Abkhazia, thereby effectively ‘strangling’ the nascent Georgian Coast Guard. However, despite being somewhat politically marginalised by the West, Turkey remains a crucial partner for Georgia.
Georgian–Turkish relations are in essence cordial but not equal. Georgia’s Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili, is viewed as a junior partner in the relationship with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For Georgia, Turkey represents an important partner in the volatile South Caucasus region. At the same time, enjoying friendly relations with Georgia as a transit country for oil, gas and cargo trains from Azerbaijan to Turkey, known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, is important for Turkey. Moreover, cargo transferred by road from Russia and Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey is a basic necessity. Bilateral relations are mainly focused on the economy and, occasionally, the Turkish military donates or sells military equipment to the Georgian Defence Forces (GDF). READ MORE
Publications
What Next for Nagorno Karabakh? 
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic with one clear goal – to destroy it. It was a logical continuation of Azerbaijan’s decades-long policy, including the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and the blockade of the Lachin (Berdzor) corridor imposed in December 2022. After 24 hours of intensive fighting, the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic surrendered. A few days later, the large exodus of the Armenian population started, and by the end of September 2023, less than 100 Armenians were left in Nagorno Karabakh. On September 28, the president of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic signed a decree to dissolve the Republic by the end of 2023.
The reaction in Armenia to these events was somewhat surprising. The government made it clear that Armenia would not intervene to prevent the destruction of Nagorno Karabakh. Most Armenians went to social media, lamenting the lack of actions by Russia, the EU, and the US. Many were genuinely surprised that for Russia and the collective West, geopolitical or economic interests had more value than the fate of 100,000 Armenians who lived in Nagorno Karabakh for the last several millennia.
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Publications
All-Encompassing Solutions are Necessary for Sustainable Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan 
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On 28 September, the separatist regime illegally created by Armenia in the territories of Azerbaijan in early 1990s, and which presented itself as the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”, declared its dissolution by the end of 2023. Azerbaijan has quickly restored its sovereignty over the area that remained under the joint control of the separatists and Russia’s peacekeeping contingent following the 44-day war in 2020. This has been undoubtedly a major development not only for Azerbaijan but also for the entire South Caucasus. Many people both in the region and beyond agree that Baku and Yerevan are now much closer to a peace treaty as the crux of their decades-long conflict no longer exists.
It is important that the Armenian government shares this view and realizes the present opportunities for a real breakthrough. For instance, the speaker of the Armenian parliament Alen Simonian told Armenian public television on September 25 that “We are very close and have a historic opportunity to sign a peace agreement”. “Endless war is not beneficial for anyone”, he asserted.
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