Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey receives permission to post NATO’s Patriot missile batteries in the country’s south to combat potential attacks from Syrian Scuds
• The potential of Kurdish-Arab splits in the Syrian civil war continue to drag Ankara further into the deteriorating situation in the country.
• The Central Bank begins implementing a plan to protect the country’s banks from risky investment, while the government’s monetary policy seeks to ease inflation caused by expanding domestic credit availability.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s presence sparks protests at an Istanbul university, with the ensuing violence
• employed as a “stick” with which to beat the ruling AKP by opposition parties.
• Erdogan’s office reportedly tapped; prime minister claims by the Deep State. However a lack of definitive perpetrators leaves many questions as to the validity to the claims.
• KRG Prime Minister Barzani assures U.S. on proposed Turk-Kurd pipeline, claims disputes with Baghdad should remain in the economic, not political realm.
• Shah Deniz II considers buying into Nabucco West, while Ukraine responds to South Stream by exploring a potential membership in TANAP.

• December 31, 2012

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Reports claim that Gazprom plans lower European gas export prices for 2013 in a bid to compete with spot price contracts, while Russian officials continue to press for exemptions from the Third Energy Package for Nord Stream and South Stream
• Sources report that Gazprom could lower its gas export price for Ukraine for 2013 from the predicted $421 per thousand cubic metres to $352, as Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, announces a last-minute postponement of his meeting with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow to discuss Russian-Ukrainian energy relations
• Gazprom holds a ceremony to mark the start of the construction of South Stream, but the EU remains sceptical about the implementation of the project due to the lack of necessary assessments and permits
• The Estonian government refuses permission for Nord Stream AG to conduct research in Estonia’s territorial waters, as part of plans for Nord Stream’s proposed expansion
• Gazprom’s second-largest European customer, Turkey, proposes increasing its Russian gas imports by 3 bcm ‘in the near future’
• Gazprom restarts high-level talks with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over Russian gas deliveries to China, with the two sides united by a focus on the Altai pipeline, but divided over gas prices
• Two months after missing out to Rosneft on a lucrative deal to supply gas to Russian electricity utility, Inter RAO, Novatek signs a $4bn deal to supply 27 bcm to Moscow-based electricity generator, Mosenergo, as Gazprom loses more of the domestic Russian gas market

• December 31, 2012

Ukraine's national oil and gas stock company Naftogaz Ukrainy has signed an agreement with China Development Bank Corporation for $3.656 billion under state guarantee for projects involving the replacement of gas with coal, Deputy Prime Minister Yuriy Boiko's press service announced Tuesday evening.

• December 29, 2012

The construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, also known as the Iron Silk Road, is expected to be completed in 2013. The railway, which is planned to have an initial yearly carrying capacity of 1.5 million passengers and 3 million tons of cargo, will pave the way for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia to achieve better economic integration.

• December 29, 2012

Around 135,000 tons of liquefied gas has been extracted and supplied to consumers in Turkmenistan since early 2012. The main volume is intended for export, the Turkmen Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said on Thursday.

• December 29, 2012

The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline will be expanded with the increased capacity amounting to 25 billion cbm of gas per year after 2017, Azerbaijan’s energy minister Natig Aliyev told journalists in Baku.

• December 27, 2012

Russia is seeking to revive last summer's peace plan for Syria in talks with a senior Syrian diplomat and an international envoy, according to Moscow's foreign ministry.

• December 27, 2012

Russia and China are starting construction work on the second stage of the Tianwan nuclear power plant, Russian officials said on Thursday.

• December 27, 2012