Issue 9: October 2011

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
Key points:

• In a somewhat surprising development for Gazprom, Turkish state-owned gas pipeline operator, Botaş, has declined to extend its contract for 6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year. The move is seen by some as an attempt by Ankara to obtain gas price discounts.
• The Polish state-owned energy company, PGNiG, has joined its European counterparts in pressing for lower gas prices from Gazprom. Warsaw wants to change the gas price formula and tie it to spot gas market prices.
• Another recent, unpleasant surprise for Gazprom was the launch of an investigation into its European partners carried out by the European Commission (EC). Officially, the EC investigation concerns the potential violation of antimonopoly legislation, although some commentators see the investigation as an attempt to strengthen the position of European consumers in their negotiations with the Russian gas giant.
• Belarus has agreed terms with Gazprom for the sale of the remaining 50 percent stake in Beltransgaz. In return, Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko, is demanding guarantees of transit through the Belarusian pipeline network and a reduction in gas import prices to the level of internal Russian prices.
• Ukraine President, Viktor Yanukovich’s attempt to destroy his political rival, Yulia Timoshenko, is playing into Gazprom’s hands. As Brussels toughens its stance towards Kiev, Ukraine is forced to be more amenable in its negotiations with Russia, especially those over the future of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System (GTS)
• Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to China failed to produce a breakthrough in negotiations over the Altai gas pipeline and potential Russian gas deliveries to China. The price of gas exports via the Altai pipeline remains the main stumbling block, as Gazprom is currently seeking other ways of exporting gas to China, namely via the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline.

• November 13, 2011

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 2011
Key Points:

• Turkey’s economy continues to flourish in comparison with other developed economies on its European periphery. The country gained over a million jobs and clocked an 11 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2011 while its GDP grew by 8.8 percent.
• Germany’s Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, leant his support to the Turkish accession bid to the EU, saying that the EU should be “fair to Turkey in the negotiation process.”
• Ankara continues its condemnation of Syrian violence against opposition and activist members, and according to a number of reports, is now hosting a group of former Syrian soldiers called the Free Syrian Army.
• A large earthquake in the Van province has exacerbated Kurdish-Turkish relations with claims of bias being leveled at the government for the manner of its response to the disaster in the mainly Kurdish region.
• Turkish Security Forces (TSK) continue their assault on PKK strongholds in Iraq after a devastating attack in mid-October that left 24 TSK soldiers dead. On October 28, police arrested a number of pro-Kurdish BDP Party members in and around Istanbul, including member of the intra-party constitutional commission, Buşra Ersanli.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey finally conclude a natural gas supply agreement following two years of negotiations, while BOTAS informs Gazprom that it will not renew a key existing gas supply contract with Russia.

• November 13, 2011

“Russia joined the WTO and now does not need goods from Kyrgyzstan,” the Dordoi Trade Union member Ismat Shamiyev stated at today’s conference “Employment in the KRG: problems and political choice”.

• November 11, 2011

The active phase of the joint Armenian-Russian tactical training with firing practice was held on Alagyaz training ground of Armenia.

• November 11, 2011

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed Wednesday that Iran won't retreat "one iota" from its nuclear program, denying claims that it seeks atomic weapons. Key ally Russia gave the Islamic Republic a major boost, rejecting tighter sanctions despite a U.N. watchdog report detailing suspected arms-related advances.

• November 11, 2011

Kazakhstan is looking at widening participation in its privatisation programme to international investors, the deputy chief executive of the country's sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna said on Thursday.

• November 10, 2011

Russia is ready to build more nuclear reactors in Iran, its nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko said Thursday despite renewed fears that Tehran is seeking to produce nuclear weapons.

• November 10, 2011

Iran’s supreme leader on Thursday warned Israel and the United States that any attack on the country’s controversial nuclear program would be met with an “iron fist.”

• November 10, 2011