by Mehmet Ogutcu,
Expert in global energy security matters

The Turkish leadership has committed itself to a tough position on Israel, Cyprus and Syria, and any backtracking or sign of weakness will seriously affect its credibility at home, with regional partners, the “Arab Street” and other major global powers, as well as high stakes involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. This represents a policy of principle, consistent with the values and goals the government pursues, but is also a risky one, which if not well managed may lead to some undesirable hot confrontation. The power comes with responsibility if it will be effectively harnessed.

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 06.10.2011  |  Published on EGF: 05.10.2011  |  Security
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A wide strip of mainland and continental shelf territory starting from the Rus- sian sector of the Arctic up to the Arabian Peninsula can be labelled an Arctic - Arabian hydrocarbon belt (CH-belt) of Eurasia. It is the strip where the major mainland oil and gas fields are located on the territory of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula countries. As the production of hydrocarbons has been developing, transport routes to the markets of their consumption, the major of which is the European Union, started to branch off this diagonal CH-belt of Eurasia in the latitudinal direction. Practically, these transport routes connect the area of production (upstream) with the consumption market (downstream).

• Mykhailo Gonchar, Alexander Duleba, Oleksandr Malynovskyi  |  Date: 28.06.2011  |  Published on EGF: 27.06.2011  |  Energy
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Mikhail Roshchin, EGF Affiliated Expert

While many in Russia have become accustomed to gas disputes with Ukraine as the flagship event hailing in the New Year, the start of 2011 brought with it a far more tragic security crisis when a major bomb blast ripped through the crowded halls of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. The attack occurred in the arrivals area of the airport at 4.32 pm, on 24 January 2011, claiming the lives of 36 individuals and injuring 116 more. An act of terrorism was immediately assumed by many security experts, possibly involving a suicide bomber, who employed an explosive device containing 5-7 kilogrammes of Trinitrotoluene (TNT). Among the victims was Anna Yablonskaya, a 29-years-old Ukrainian playwright and poet who had come to Moscow to receive a prize from the magazine Art of the Cinema for her recent play. This attack follows the March 2010 suicide bombing in which two women, originally from Dagestan, blew themselves up in Moscow’s underground causing the death of 40 commuters. As was the case in the March 2010 attack, separatist-terrorists from the Russian North Caucasus were suspected of involvement in the Domodedovo attacks. These suspicions appeared to be confirmed earlier this month, when Chechen rebel leader, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the bombing on February 4. In his video broadcast confirming responsibility for the attack, Umarov justified his actions on the basis of Russian state policy in the North Caucasus. READ MORE

• Mikhail Roshchin  |  Date: 22.02.2011  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Date: 22.02.2011  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 14.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Energy Roundtable Summary Document

The EU-Russia energy roundtable discussion held at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) on February 26, 2010, brought together a significant number of well known experts and policy makers engaged in the EU-Russia energy relationship in order to assess some of the challenges which presently exist in this sphere. Some of these challenges are summarised below. The objectives of the seminar organisers were to create an environment in which experts and policy makers could openly and candidly discuss the challenges standing before the EU-Russia energy relationship. The roundtable was also attended by a large number of participants from academia, government, energy companies and the diplomatic community.

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 17.05.2010  |  Published on EGF: 17.05.2010  |  Energy
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At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans

• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 16.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 16.03.2010  |  Energy
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• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 08.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 19.02.2010  |  Energy
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• EGF Editorial  |  Date: 08.03.2010  |  Published on EGF: 25.01.2010  |  Security
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