Publication on Security
North Caucasus Security OutlookMembers only

Russia during the Putin (and now Putin-Medvedev) years has, to a good degree, been successful in casting an image of increasing national wealth, external power and domestic stability...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.12.2009  |  Security
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Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political PrognosisMembers only

The former-Yugoslav entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is gripped by deep political crisis at present. Divisions between Serb, Croat and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslims) minorities are deepening inside the country, undermining the work and institutions of government, scuttling any sense of national unity and threatening to plunge Bosnia into the vortex of ethnic conflict...

  • EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 22.10.2009  |  Security
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Conventional Security Risks to Central Asia. A Summary Overview.  PDF  (199 Kb)

This paper briefly outlines the conventional threats to the security of the five former Soviet states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It also attempts to identify the common features contributing to insecurity in the region. The new and quite disturbing threat to regional insecurity – the growing risk of a spillover of insurgency into the region from Afghanistan is also discussed.


  • Paul Quinn-Judge  |  Published on EGF: 23.02.2010  |  Security
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Turkey: Domestic Security Outlook Members only

Key issues:

  • Special operations continue in Turkey’s south east;
  • PKK conflict taking on a more complex character;
  • Many detained in domestic crackdowns;
  • State-sponsored Kurdish militias involved in massacre;
  • Islamic threat to secular elite deemed real;
  • Government hardens position on secular elites;
  • Clandestine plot to overthrown Turkish government;
  • Corruption not the key obstacle in Turkey’s EU accession talks.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 25.06.2009  |  Security
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The Big Caucasus. Consequences of the "Five Day War", Threats and Political Prospects  PDF  (1 Mb)

Sergey Markedonov, a prescient analyst of the Caucasus, assesses in this Xenophon Paper the possible implications of the August 2008 “five day war”. He initiates a discussion on the region’s “unfreezing of the conflicts” and provides an in-depth description of the existent non-recognised state entities and the other ethno-political conflicts with which the Caucasus is ridden. The author also explores the perspectives of major regional and extra-regional stakeholders in the area and the ambitious policies they deploy at the moment: the Russian stabilisation project, the American “Greater Middle East” project and the European Union social and economic (soft security) project...

  • Sergey Markedonov  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2009  |  Security
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North African Security Outlook: Trans-national Islamic Extremism in the MaghrebMembers only

Key issues:

  • Maghreb terror threat escalated to regional level;
  • Fresh round of attacks by Al Qaeda terrorist cells in Algeria;
  • Government confidence building measures amidst pre-electoral terror threat;
  • Algeria’s predicament: more terror with fewer insurgents;
  • High profile terror arrests sweep Morocco;
  • Lack of confidence in anti-terrorism measures, despite the crackdowns;
  • Terrorism threat exacerbated by Morocco’s social and economic concerns;
  • Clashes between militants and the army continue in Mauritania;
  • Presence of Al Qaeda in Mauritania likely;
  • Al Qaeda suspects jailed in Tunisia;
  • Libyan authorities remain vigilant in wake of anticipated attacks;
  • Maghreb militants prevented from launching attacks in Europe;
  • Maghreb anti-terrorism measures will require greater coordination.

  • EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.03.2010  |  Security
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Islamic Extremism as a Political Force  PDF  (1 Mb)

  • Michael Fredholm  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2011  |  Security
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