Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey requests Patriot missile defense systems from NATO out of fears of Syria launching WMD-tipped rockets at opposition fighters along the border.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s anti-Israel stance gains him credibility in the Muslim world while alienating him from opportunities to help solve the Israeli-Palestinian situation.
• Investigations continue into the 1993 death of then-president Turgut Ozal. Although unrelated to the country’s current problems, a history of “Deep State” involvement in the government created a country where conspiracy theories fester.
• The AKP conducts an internal discussion on the possibility of revoking immunity from MPs which would specifically affect Kurdish BDP deputies.
• BOTAS raises prices on gas sold for domestic electricity supplies, while Gazprom seals long term export deals with four private Turkish firms.
• ENI continues to worry about its future in Turkey following the row over Cyprus, and TANAP is ratified by Azerbaijan’s parliament.
• In Iraq, Erdogan and al-Maliki trade barbs over the widening rift between the KRG and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 10.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #47
12/03/2012
An association agreement between Ukraine and the EU may be signed during the Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013, the news and analysis web portal Lb.ua has quoted European Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fule as saying on 29 November 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.12.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom announces an agreement with Poland’s PGNiG to adjust gas prices and signs an asset-swap deal with BASFT Wintershall, but remains under pressure in Europe due to falling export volumes and the EU antimonopoly investigation
• Ukraine continues to press for reduced imports of Russian gas and receives first deliveries from RWE
• Gazprom appears set to expand its underground gas storage facilities and gas transmission capacity in Belarus
• Slovenia and Bulgaria confirm their final investment decisions for the South Stream project, as Gazprom’s partners also take the final investment decision on the offshore section, while Gazprom signs a new gas supply contract with Bulgargaz
• Turkish regulators approve Gazprom’s new long-term supply contracts with private Turkish energy companies
• Gazprom demonstrates the potential for shipping LNG from Europe to Japan as it charters the first LNG supertanker to traverse the Arctic during winter
• Novatek acquires 49 percent of Northgas, with Gazprom retaining its 51 percent stake in the company

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #46
11/26/2012
The EU-Ukraine association agreement may be signed in 2012, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, said on 21 November 2012. He added that his optimism does not mean that the EU called off its previous conditions to Ukraine: "The signing was stopped due to the issues concerning selective justice, incomplete judicial reform and our doubts about the recently held election". READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 29.11.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Hostilities erupt between Kurdish fighters and the FSA in Syria, with some Kurdish groups siding with the opposition forces.
• Prime Minister Erdogan condemns Israel in the latest round of fighting between the Jewish state and Hamas controlled Gaza.
• A month long hunger strike by Kurdish prisoners in Turkey is close to being called off as the PKK and the government hold talks.
• The AKP pushes through a draft law designating new municipalities, although the opposition claims they have gerrymandered for an advantage in upcoming elections.
• The government gives the go-ahead to sell electricity to Syria despite the current impasse with Damascus.
• Turkey threatens ENI over its Cyprus exploration bid, while Tehran and Ankara renegotiate ahead of the cessation of the “take or pay” natural gas contracts.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 28.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #45
11/19/2012
On 13 November 2012, the pro-presidential Party of Regions registered a bill enabling repeat elections to be held in single-seat constituencies. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 22.11.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lithuania files a €1.5bn ($2bn) lawsuit against Gazprom, claiming the Russian company has abused its position as monopoly gas exporter to Lithuania since 2004
• RWE Transgas wins a landmark case against Gazprom, as it refuses to pay fines for breaking the ‘take-or-pay’ clauses in its gas supply contract
• Naftogaz reaches an agreement with Germany’s RWE Trading for trial gas supplies via Poland
• Gazprom officially launches the second line of Nord Stream, and announces plans for two additional lines
• South Stream gets the green light to be realised on the territories of Serbia and Hungary, with similar developments expected in relation to Bulgaria and Slovenia in November
• Gazprom confirms the development of the Chayandinskoe gas field and related pipeline infrastructure as part of its plan to increase LNG exports to the Asia-Pacific region
• Gazprom signs a contract for LNG supplies to India and announces an increase in its LNG supplies to South Korea
• Gazprom officially launches gas production at the Bovanenkovo gas field, as part of its Yamal Megaproject
• Rosneft cements its role in Russia’s gas sector, but supports Gazprom’s continued export monopoly

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #44
11/12/2012
On 8 November 2012, the Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission (CEC) concluded the processing of 100 percent of official vote count reports in the national multipleseat constituency in the 28 October parliamentary election. According to the obtained results, the pro-presidential Party of Regions garnered 30 percent of the popular vote, United Opposition Fatherland - 25.54 percent, boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko's party UDAR – 13.96 percent , the Communist Party of Ukraine – 13.18 percent and the far-right all-Ukrainian Freedom association – 10.44 percent. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.11.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 16-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• The Syrian civil war continues with Turkish public opinion largely opposed to an intervention. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) has seized on the mood in an attempt to win back political ground from the AKP.
• A high-ranking U.S. military official tells Turkish academics that Washington will likely maintain its passive stance on Syria unless authorized by the UN Security Council or NATO.
• Turkey views Kurdish fighters in Syria as a threat amidst ongoing PKK-TSK violence. But a high-profile court case and international focus on Kurdish hunger strikers may provide an opportunity for new discourse between the government and the country’s largest minority.
• Another oil export dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government and Baghdad threatens to further undermine the Turkey-Iraq relationship.
• South Stream continues to motor forward but the European Commission is not yet ready to offer special exemptions to the Moscow-led project. This may lead to further delays in its realization.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.11.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #43
11/05/2012
The OSCE has issued a generally positive assessment of the voting process at the parliamentary election in Ukraine, however it has criticized the establishing of results as not transparent enough. This opinion is presented in a joint statement issued by the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, Walburga Habsburg Douglas, and the head of the OSCE/ODIHR long-term observation mission, Audrey Glover, on 29 October 2012, the news and analysis website Lb.ua has reported. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.11.2012  |  External Relations
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