ISSUE #42
10/29/2012
On 28 October, after the parliamentary election took place and polling stations were closed at 2000 local time, leading Ukrainian sociological companies publicized the results of their exit polls. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 30.10.2012  |  External Relations
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In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during October 1-15th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst
Key Points:

• Syria and Turkey exchange artillery fire throughout October, and a Syrian airliner thought to be carrying Russian military equipment is forced to land in Turkey.
• The plane incident could have implications for Turkey’s vital Russian gas supplies, if the relationship between the two countries deteriorates.
• PKK violence continues unabated as the underlying issues facing Turkey’s Kurdish population are ignored for short-term solutions.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 25.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #40
10/15/2012
There are political prisoners in Ukraine, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Jan Tombinski, has said.
“Ukraine has political prisoners and one can hear this statement even from individuals who are closely connected to the current. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 23.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #39
10/08/2012
On 3 October 2012, President Viktor Yanukovych met in Kiev the heads of Ukraine's diplomatic offices abroad. The meeting was also attended by OSCE Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, according to a report by the news and analysis portal Lb.ua. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 13.10.2012  |  External Relations
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To check the insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during September 16-30th 2012 please see our Turkey File, updated by John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Erdogan leads the AKP party Congress, appearing to position himself for a presidential run in 2014.
• Syria’s civil war is causing violence to flare between the PKK and Turkish security forces (TSK). The porous nature of the Syrian-Turkish border is causing further domestic tensions, as the country’s population remains ambivalent about intervention.
• The Sledgehammer coup case concludes with a conviction and the TSK in its barracks.
• Turkey’s domestic energy needs hit citizens’ wallets as the government cuts subsidies and attempts to increase imports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Turkey’s economic success is built on risky factors according to some investors, despite its 8 percent growth.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #38
10/01/2012
President Viktor Yanukovych has refused to comment on the US Senate recent resolution on Ukraine. "I would say any assessment should be treated in earnest: whether it is biased or not, adopted according to procedures or not. It is not up to us to judge the US Senate," he said in the USA on 26 September 2012. However, Yanukovych noted that the Senate stance was slightly different from that of the Department of State and the White House. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.10.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for September 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The European Commission launches an antitrust investigation of Gazprom, as the company is suspected of imposing unfair prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Gazprom claims innocence, but a Presidential Decree preventing Russian strategic companies (such as Gazprom) from disclosing information to foreign investigators without Russian government permission suggests that Moscow is concerned about the investigation.
• President Putin claims that the second line of Nord Stream is to be launched on 8 October, although this is yet to be confirmed by Nord Stream AG, Gazprom, or the Russian Energy Ministry.
• South Stream AG considers tenders for steel pipes for South Stream, as Gazprom vows to continue with the project despite the launching of the antitrust investigation of Gazprom by the European Commission.
• Gazprom hosts a meeting with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation and claims ‘a step forward’ in long-running negotiations, although sources suggest significant disagreements remain between the two parties.
• As Ukraine seeks lower gas purchases (27 bcm) from Russia in 2012, a new winter dispute cannot be ruled out.
• Gazprom indefinitely suspends the Shtokman project, but signs a long-term cooperation agreement with Rosneft for the development of Russia’s continental shelf.
• Gazprom and Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy sign a Memorandum on the Vladivostok LNG project – with a final investment decision expected in early 2013.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #37
09/24/2012
Selective application of justice has become an obstacle to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's visits to the EU, Swedish Foreign Minister Karl Bildt said in an interview with the Kommersant Ukraina business daily on 19 September 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #36
09/17/2012
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko has said he is certain that the Ukraine-EU summit would take place before the end of 2012. Hryshchenko made a statement to this effect on 14 September 2012, the Lb.ua news and analysis website has reported. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.10.2012  |  External Relations
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