Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-15th 2012
Key Points:

• Anti-American protests engulf the Middle East, leaving the U.S. Ambassador to Libya and three other embassy staff dead. Prime Minister Erdogan is the most prominent Muslim leader to criticize violence in the name of religion.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues, although Turkish public opinion remains opposed to military intervention.
• PKK-TSK fighting increases in the country’s southeast, with Ankara focused on PKK fighters’ control of safe havens in northern Syria.
• Baghdad halts new registrations for foreign firms, affecting Turkish investment in Iraq. Oil agreement reached by Erbil and Iraqi Oil Ministry may sooth tensions, but conviction in absentia of renegade, formerdeputy- president, Tareq al-Hashemi, remains a sore point in Turkish-Iraqi relations.
• Turkey and Iran may be on the verge of another energy related dispute and possible arbitration round, as Tehran continues to level Ankara with high gas prices.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #35
09/10/2012
The association agreement with Ukraine can be signed only if Kiev respects European values, President of the EU Commission Jose Manuel Barroso said on 4 September 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 17.09.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2012
Key Points:

• Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu leads the Turkish effort at the Security Council to establish buffer zones in northern Syria.
• Fears of the PKK’s resurgence in Syria are played up by opposition parties to undermine an already fragile AKP position.
• Relations between Iran and Turkey remain cool after the kidnapping of 48 Iranians in Syria by rebel forces.
• Egyptian President Mursi will propose a four power meeting over Syria between his country, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
• Turkey continues to court the KRG of Iraq, with the foreign minister’s visit to Kirkuk infuriating Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector for August 2012
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom and the Lithuanian Government both claim victory following the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Institute ruling over Lietuvos Dujos
• Gazprom signs contracts with four Turkish energy companies to supply 6 bcm of Russian gas from January 2013, replacing the volumes given up by Turkish state energy company, Botaş, in October 2011
• Nord Stream AG completes the welding of the second string of Nord Stream pipeline and requests permission to conduct research in Estonian territorial waters as part of plans for the expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline
• South Stream could be re-routed via Croatia, bypassing Hungary
• Putin and Yanukovych meet in Sochi, with Ukraine planning to reduce its Russian gas imports and hoping for an (unlikely) gas price discount
• Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, held meetings in Belarus, discussed investments in the gas transmission system of Beltransgaz and the expansion of natural gas as a motor fuel in Belarus
• Statoil withdraws from the Shtokman project, ceding its stake to Gazprom – Will Total follow suit?
• Novatek announces a breakthrough deal to supply gas to German utility company EnBW, as E.On Russia confirms that it will buy gas for its power stations from Novatek, not Gazprom, from 2013

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #34
09/03/2012
On 30 August 2012, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) Andriy Klyuyev said that the agreement on a free trade area (FTA) within the CIS can boost industrial production in Ukraine by 3.5-4 percent in the medium term, providing an additional growth of GDP by up to 2.5 percent per year. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 10.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #33
08/27/2012
On 21 August 2012, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said that, following the entry into force of a free trade area agreement within the CIS, Kiev is planning to start negotiations on access to the Russian gas transport system and possible transport of natural gas from Central Asia to Ukraine through Russia's system. Azarov said that such steps are envisaged by the agreement on free trade area, which allows launching negotiations on access to the gas transport system immediately after the agreement comes into force and reaching agreement on Ukraine's access to the “pipe” within six months. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 03.09.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #32
08/20/2012
The Russian Defence Ministry is planning to equip the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea with six new submarines, according to an Interfax report on 16 August 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 26.08.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #31
08/13/2012
The official representative of the Investigation Committee of the Russian Prosecutor's Office, Vladimir Markin, said on 8 August 2012 that Georgia's authorities used Ukrainian hirelings to compromise Russian soldiers in the armed conflict in South Ossetia in 2008. Markin said that the Ukrainians “dressed in Russian military uniform and then scenes showing Russian servicemen attacking and robbing Georgian civilians were staged”. Markin added that Russia is going to complain to the International Criminal Court demanding an investigation into these facts. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 17.08.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #30
08/06/2012
On 30 July 2012, the Ukrainian parliament ratified an agreement on setting up a free trade area (FTA) with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Lb.ua news and analysis website reported. The document was submitted for ratification by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 10.08.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom suffers a setback as the Lithuanian parliament approves construction of an LNG plant at Klaipeda as part of efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas, but agrees a gas price discount for E.On and extends contract with Moldovgaz, potentially halting Moldova’s implementation of the Third Energy Package
• Mixed fortunes for Gazprom in Turkey as the company wins the right to sell gas to private Turkish energy companies, but suffers a setback with the announcement of a Turkish-Azerbaijani agreement on the construction of the TANAP pipeline
• The Nord Stream project is on schedule for the second string launch in Q4 2012. CEO Alexei Miller suggests that Nord Stream could be extended to the UK
• Macedonia and Respublika Srpska reiterate their enthusiasm for South Stream, but the date of final investment decision and the application of the EU Third Energy Package remain unclear
• Putin meets Yanukovych in Yalta but refuses demands for gas price discount
• More negotiations between Gazprom and CNPC, but with no breakthrough
• Shtokman talks delayed with a result not being expected until autumn 2012
• Gazprom is ranked as the world’s most profitable company by Forbes, but only comes 98th of 105 in transparency rankings according to report by Transparency International
• Novatek begins construction of Sabetta LNG terminal in Yamal region, but claims no threat to Gazprom’s export monopoly
• Rosneft expands its presence in the Russian gas market with an acquisition of a 6 percent stake in independent gas company Itera

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.08.2012  |  External Relations
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