Special Edition
02/22/2014
A new situational majority has been established in the Ukrainian Parliament (including representative of the Party of Regions faction, - ed.), that has supported a number of laws and decrees of the opposition MPs. It is also to note that as of 22 February 63 out of 210 deputies have left the Party of Regions faction. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-18th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP-majority in parliament passes a restrictive Internet censorship bill despite opposition parties and international outcry.
• President Abdullah Gul declines to veto the measure, disappointing many who hoped he would be a moderating influence in the months to come.
• American President Barack Obama to skip Turkey in March trip to Europe and Saudi Arabia. The skip is indicative of the cooling relations between the president and Prime Minister Erdogan over a number of issues.
• TPAO declines investment in Iran for now, while talks on a pipeline deal in the Eastern Mediterranean and a détente between Turkey, Cyprus and Israel appears mutually beneficial.
• Iraqi Kurdistan connects pipeline to Turkish system, enraging a Baghdad already beset by a Sunni insurgency in Iraq’s western province. Turkey is collecting the KRG’s oil, but has refused to sell it on international markets until an accord is reached.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.02.2014  |  External Relations
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Ben McPherson, EGF Eurasian politics researcher

In a recent letter to the European Geopolitical Forum, HE Vladimir Norov, the ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium, highlighted the robust economic development his country has enjoyed since the turn of the millennium. In addition, he described government priorities for 2014 aimed at continuing the boom. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.02.2014
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 1-31st 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP government effectively halts the corruption investigations by conducting the largest judicial reshuffle in the Republic’s history.
• Fethullah Gulen defends prosecutors’ actions but denies any complicity on part of his Gulen Movement as part of a conspiracy against the government.
• Prime Minister Erdogan takes a softer tone in a hostile Brussels as he visits the seat of the EU for the first time in five years.
• Capital flight continues to harm Turkey’s economic prospects as the lira faces longest consecutive days of losses against the dollar since 2001.
• Defying the prime minister’s warnings that an interest rate hike is part of a conspiracy, the Central Bank acts in an emergency meeting, raising interest rates more than 4 percent.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.02.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• EU continues to prepare Statement of Objections despite Gazprom’s December proposals for an early settlement
• Gazprom breaks record in gas exports to Europe in 2013 with 16 percent y-o-y increase in gas export volumes
• Gazprom-OMV contractual adjustments ‘unaffected’ by EU antimonopoly investigation
• Dutch gas production set to decline in 2014-15 – Could Gazprom fill the gap?
• Putin outlines Russia’s position regarding Ukraine: the gas debt still needs to be paid and the Russian government is prepared to work with whoever is in power in Ukraine
• Nord Stream: EU and Gazprom agree on full use of OPAL pipeline
• EU and Russia continue to negotiate over the application of Third Party Access legislation to the South Stream project
• Gazprom plans to sign deal with CNPC (China) in May, during Putin visit to China
• Gazprom completes 100 percent takeover of ArmRosGazprom (Armenia)
• Gazprom adds fifth tanker to its LNG carrier fleet

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.02.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Gazprom prepares to settle in EU Antitrust investigation
• Gazprom finalises asset-swap with BASF Wintershall, with deal approved by EU competition watchdog
• Russia offers Ukraine 33 percent discount on gas price as part of package designed to keep Ukraine in Russia’s political orbit
• Nord Stream: EU and Gazprom to agree terms for use of OPAL pipeline in early 2014
• South Stream faces legal hurdles as European Commission claims aspects of South Stream’s intergovernmental agreements are in breach of EU law
• Gazprom fails to conclude deal with CNPC before year end
• Gazprom opens representative office in Brussels

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.01.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Investigators and police believed to be tied to the Gulen Movement arrest dozens with ties to government and big business in Turkey, including the sons of three cabinet ministers.
• Prime Minister Erdogan forces the resignation of nine cabinet members, some going quietly, others like Environment and Urban Planning Minister Bayrraktar condemned the prime minister himself for seeking the cabinet shuffle.
• State-owned Halkbank’s connections with a money laundering scheme for the Iranian nuclear program threaten to alienate Turkey’s Western allies.
• The political uncertainty emanating from the investigations and subsequent interference with the judiciary by the prime minister have caused sharp drops in Turkey’s markets. The lira closes the year out near a record low.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.01.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP-Gulen Movement split hits the front pages and airwaves in Turkey.
• Once friendly outlets controlled by the Gulen Movement turn on Prime Minister Erdogan after a 2004 action plan is released describing AKP complicity with the military to undermine Gulen-owned companies.
• The Constitutional Commission fails on its mission having only agreed to half of the required articles.
• Contentious issues regarding citizenship, the Kurdish issue and a new presidential role remain unresolved.
• Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq look set to sign a pipeline deal despite continued opposition from Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 10.12.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Russian Parliament approves government bill to liberalise Russia’s LNG exports
• Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe to hit five-year high in 2013
• Novatek emerges as a new supplier of Russian gas to Europe by signing LNG contract with Spanish Fenosa
• Gazprom-Lithuania dispute reaches Court of Justice of the European Union
• Gazprom warns Europe over Ukrainian gas transit this winter, as Naftogaz Ukraine briefly suspends gas purchases from Gazprom in mid-November and Ukraine fails to sign an Association Agreement with the EU
• Gazprom starts work on Serbian section of South Stream
• Gazprom representatives remain confident that Gazprom will conclude a contract with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) before the end of 2013
• Gazprom founds joint venture with PetroVietnam for the development of gas as a transportation fuel
• Tug-of-war over Severenergia symbolic of the competition between Rosneft, Gazprom, and Novatek

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.12.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Prime Minister’s list of concerns grows as he rounds on cohabitation between male and female students in both state-run dormitories and private residences.
• It is a bizarre, if understandable issue to focus on, with the conservative Erdogan likely playing to social issues to stir up his base ahead of election season.
• A second theory behind Erdogan’s sudden concern for students’ lifestyles may be due to an ongoing split with the Gulen movement given its ownership of private schools and dormitories.
• Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq agree to a pipeline deal, but all may not be lost for Baghdad as practical concerns necessitate cooperation for all parties.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.11.2013  |  External Relations
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