By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

This AIES Focus discusses the four major foreign actors in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the time frame of the last 12 to 18 months. While Russia and Turkey are active and directly involved, China and India are implicitly but not explicitly involved in the conflict. As a result, the author tries to present and highlight the divergent and convergent perspectives of the foreign actors in the conflict. One of the major focal points of the conflict relates to what the Azerbaijani call the Zangezur corridor, and the Armenians perceive as a bone of contention. What is perhaps not least important to emphasise is that for Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, the corridor has a crucial role in the transportation link between Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Turkic States. As for Armenia and Iran, its neighbouring country, the establishment of such a corridor is perceived as an existential threat. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.03.2024  |  External Relations
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The delegation of Uzbekistan took part at the High-level Segment of the 55th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council

The delegation of Uzbekistan led by the First Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis, Director of the National Centre for Human Rights (NCHR) Akmal Saidov took part at the High-level Segment of the 55th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council.
According to the NCHR, during the speech of the delegation of Uzbekistan, it was noted that our country is consistently implementing its policy in the field of human rights, an example of which, in particular, is the updated Constitution of the country adopted during a national referendum in 2023. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 01.03.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Over the past two years, since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Azerbaijan’s foreign and security policies have drawn varying interpretations from experts and political observers. The delicate balancing act pursued by Baku between competing global powers while safeguarding the country’s national interests and restoring its territorial integrity has appeared as an intriguing case for the studies of international relations. Amidst the evolving dynamics of regional geopolitics, Azerbaijan’s recent engagements with Western counterparts underscore its unwavering commitment to maintaining robust relations with the West. Despite the complexities of navigating relations with neighbouring powers, Azerbaijan remains steadfast in its pursuit of multilateral or, as better known in the Azerbaijani discourse, balanced approach in foreign policy.
Many experts are still debating how the Azerbaijani government succeeded to dismantle the separatist regime in Karabakh without provoking a clash with Russia, widely known to be the major protector of this regime. In November 2023, during an international conference in a European city attended by the author of this article, Armenian experts critiqued the collaboration between Azerbaijan and the Western powers (i.e., the EU and United States) in September 2023 to dismantle to the separatist regime, aiming to diminish Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. Interestingly, some of these experts now suggest that Baku has aligned with Moscow to penalize Armenia’s pro-Western government. This situation underscores the complexity of Azerbaijan's foreign policy, often susceptible to misinterpretation. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.02.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Ever since the end of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, every meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders has been portrayed as raising significant expectations of some breakthrough. In 2021, all looked to Russia, where Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev met twice in January and November. Starting from 2022, the geography of hope for a breakthrough moved to Brussels, where Pashinyan and Aliyev met in April, May, and August. Even the large-scale Azerbaijani incursion into Armenia in September 2022, less than two weeks after the August 31 trilateral summit in Brussels, did not appear to diminish the hopes that every meeting may bring Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to peace. In late September 2022, experts and policy officials started to speak about possibly signing a peace deal by the end of 2022. Even the absence of a peace agreement and the start of the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in December 2022 did not shake the belief in some magic after each Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiation encounter. In the first half of 2023, the center of gravity of expectations shifted towards Washington DC as Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held two rounds of negotiations in May and June. Even the disregard by Azerbaijan towards the measures of International Court of Justice on the blockade, the establishment of block post on the Lachin corridor in April, and the complete cut of Nagorno–Karabakh from the world in June 2023 somehow did not significantly decrease the hopes that Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations would bring results soon. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.02.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Since 2020, the South Caucasus has entered an active era of turbulence. The primary reason was the Azerbaijani decision to use military force to “solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.” Azerbaijan started the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, launched incursions into Armenia proper in May, November 2021, and September 2022, and imposed a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022. The culmination of this strategy was the September 2023 military attack against Nagorno-Karabakh, which resulted in the forced displacement of around 105,000 Armenians and the dissolution of the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
Even after the complete takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan continues its policy of threats and pressure towards Armenia with an ever-changing shopping list of demands. Baku supports the concept of so-called “Western Azerbaijan” at the highest level. It expects an extraterritorial corridor from Armenia. It states that it will not pull away its troops from occupied Armenian territories, rejects Armenia’s offer to sign a non-aggression pact and continues to demand changes in the Armenian constitution and other laws. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 17.02.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

After the military takeover of Nagorno Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023 and the forced displacement of Armenians, there were some hopes in Armenia and abroad that an Armenia – Azerbaijan peace agreement was within reach. These hopes were based on the assumption that Azerbaijan received everything it could dream of just a few years ago.
After September 2023, Azerbaijan controlled the entire Nagorno-Karabakh, with only a handful of Armenians remaining there. The Armenian government accepted that reality with no intention to challenge it, while the international community did nothing tangible to punish Azerbaijan or create conditions to bring Armenians back. President Ilham Aliyev proved to everyone that he was not a “golden boy” who became president just because he was the son of a prominent leader – Heydar Aliyev – and lacked basic governance skills. He succeeded where his father failed, taking control over Nagorno Karabakh and raising Azerbaijani flags in Shushi and Stepanakert. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On January 10, 2024, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev gave a 2.5-hour interview with local TV channels. In his interview, Aliyev not only repeated false remarks and justified the ethnic cleansing of the Armenians of Artsakh but also threatened Armenia. When it comes to delimiting and demarcating the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, he rejected the old Soviet maps proposed by Armenia, arguing, “In the 20th century, the lands of Azerbaijan were given to Armenia in parts. One day after the establishment of the Azerbaijan People’s Republic in 1918, the ancient Azerbaijani city of Erevan was handed over to Armenia. After the Sovietization in April 1920, in November, the Soviet government took the bigger part of Western Zangezur from Azerbaijan and handed it over to Armenia. By May 1969, Azerbaijani lands were given to Armenia in parts, and from an area of about 100,000 square kilometres, it dropped to 86,600 square kilometres.” READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

In just one month, the world will mark the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. During this period, assessments on the course and possible outcomes of the war underwent significant changes several times. At the end of February 2022, almost everyone was sure that the war would end very quickly with Russia’s victory, bringing a change of government in Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced by a pro-Russian figure. Already in September 2022, after successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, expectations changed dramatically. This time, many were sure of Russia’s imminent defeat. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 30.01.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The year 2023 marked a challenging period for Armenian-Russian relations, likely the most strenuous since Armenia gained independence. Following the 2020 Karabakh war and Azerbaijan’s incursions into Armenia’s sovereign territory, the relationship between Armenia and Russia has experienced a notable decline. Armenia openly expresses dissatisfaction with Russia’s and the CSTO’s positions, contending that Russia has not fulfilled its alliance obligations. Simultaneously, Russia harbours suspicions about Armenia’s efforts to foster relations with the European Union and the United States, perceiving a gradual geopolitical distancing. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 10.01.2024  |  External Relations
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Alisher Kadirov, Head of the Department of the Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In November of this year, Uzbekistan's chairmanship in the Turkic States Organization (OTS) concluded. It was marked by significant achievements that played a substantial role in strengthening the country's international political and economic positions. Throughout its chairmanship, Uzbekistan actively promoted initiatives aimed at enhancing Turkic cooperation, developing trade and economic ties, and expanding mutually beneficial relations with member countries of the organization. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 28.12.2023  |  External Relations
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