By Eldor Tulyakov, Executive Director, Development Strategy Center, Tashkent

In 2016, Uzbekistan's reform agenda's fresh and rather sudden trajectory focusing on political and socio-economic development brought a welcome surprise to much of the international community. Newly elected President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, rapidly initiated policies based upon the principles of pragmatism and transparency — a shift well received by foreign governments, international organizations, and citizens alike and viewed as a watershed change in a country largely closed to the outside world since independence was obtained in 1991. A new vision of what will define Uzbekistan for future generations emerged, new horizons that will bring long-sought-after potential and opportunities to its people. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Lieutenant General (Ret.) Hayk Kotanjian, D.Sc., Full Professor (Strategic Security Studies)

The dynamics of the peace and war in the region surrounding Armenia attracts the keen attention of all actors promoting their international security interests in the explosive geostrategic space of the Greater Middle East.
In this context, the resolution of the border dispute in Syunik, and the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is the focus of international attention, requires academic and expert assessment of the legality to consider the current line of contact between the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan as the starting point in the negotiations. The negotiating parties and the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair states - the Russian Federation, the United States and France - should take into account the evidence of the following internationally valid arguments. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 19.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Relations with Azerbaijan will be the key foreign policy issue faced by the new government, regardless of the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Big decisions on future relations with Azerbaijan will have to be taken soon after the new Armenian government is formed after the 20 June elections.
On 10 May 2021, the Armenian Parliament did not elect a prime minister for the second time in a row. According to the Armenian constitution, Parliament was dissolved, and the President signed a decree to hold snap parliamentary elections on 20 June 2021. It is not easy to predict the precise results of the elections. However, we may assume that Armenia will not have a single-party government after the elections. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 18.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Alliances are being formed between Armenian political parties ahead of the 20 June parliamentary elections. Whilst they all claim to want to oust current prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, they are all also busy competing against each other. Despite this, the next Armenian government is likely to be a coalition government.
As Armenia approaches the snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 20 June 2021, the political parties are making final arrangements to form alliances and clarify their positions. The incumbent Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan will participate in the elections with his “Civic Contract” party. The second and the third Presidents of Armenia – Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan have also clarified their positions. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 12.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Armen Grigoryan, Vice-president, Yerevan-based Centre for Policy Studies

After last year’s war, hopes that the 2018 revolution will fulfil its promise are fading – but it’s not too late for change.
“A stellar performance in one year is no guarantee of future success,” declared The Economist after Armenia held free and fair elections three years ago. The qualified praise was not without cause. It was always likely that Armenia’s attempts at democratic consolidation would be difficult, particularly because of the need for some unpopular reforms. Prior to the December 2018 parliamentary elections, observers noted that civic demobilisation – the influx of non-profit sector professionals to the government and their ensuing unwillingness to criticise it – could potentially undermine political pluralism, enable re-emergent authoritarianism, or foster the rise of right-wing populism. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The EU is neither willing nor capable of countering Russia or Turkey in Armenia and Azerbaijan and will not make efforts to decrease Russian influence in Armenia and the unrecognised Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
EU-Armenia relations entered a new phase in 2009 when the EU launched its Eastern Partnership Initiative. Armenia successfully negotiated an Association Agreement with the EU and was going to sign it in autumn 2013. The growing tensions between Russia and the West forced Armenia to cancel the signature, not to ruin relations with its strategic ally. Armenia and the EU started a new round of negotiations in late 2014, culminating with the signature of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in November 2017. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.05.2021  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2020 Karabakh war has dramatically changed the geopolitical status quo in the South Caucasus. Discussions have been underway in Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora about the reasons for the catastrophe and those responsible. Most probably, military defeat will be a key topic during the upcoming June 2021 snap parliamentary elections. The thorough analyses of what happened before, during, and after the war are mandatory tasks to be fulfilled. However, the key for Armenia now to elaborate a new policy towards the Karabakh conflict, taking into account the war results. The most significant issue here is to develop a realistic policy based on accurate calculations, Armenia’s resources, and the interests of external players; otherwise, Armenia may face another catastrophe. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 28.04.2021  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooperation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a region that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 17.04.2021  |  External Relations
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The relationship between Russia and Turkey is an unequal one. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not like playing second fiddle in the Russian-Turkish orchestra, conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, at every twist and turn, Putin holds more leverage over Erdogan than the other way around.
Putin will cooperate with Turkey as long as it suits Russian interests. He would quickly end the relationship if Turkey were to turn against him and tried to return to the Western fold from which it has drifted away ever since the failed coup on 15 July 2016. Erdoğan is aware of this and, as a result, is leading Turkey ever deeper into the Russian fold since the European Union, the United States and NATO all remain suspicious of him and his administration’s goals and are simply unwilling to assist him in his various military activities in Libya, Syria and, most recently, in the South Caucasus. READ MORE.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 17.04.2021  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia is actively preparing for the 20 June 2021 snap parliamentary elections. Political parties are making their final calculations regarding the format of their participation. The main battle will probably occur between the incumbent prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan. The latter has already confirmed that he will lead an alliance of two or three parties. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the “Motherland” party, established by the former director of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsyan, and the new “Rebirth Armenia” party established by the former governor of the Syunik region, Vahe Hakobyan, which unites several mayors from the Syunik, may create an electoral bloc under the leadership of Robert Kocharyan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 14.04.2021  |  External Relations
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