The EU Will Not Act as a Counterweight to Russia in Either Armenia or NKR
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The EU is neither willing nor capable of countering Russia or Turkey in Armenia and Azerbaijan and will not make efforts to decrease Russian influence in Armenia and the unrecognised Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
EU-Armenia relations entered a new phase in 2009 when the EU launched its Eastern Partnership Initiative. Armenia successfully negotiated an Association Agreement with the EU and was going to sign it in autumn 2013. The growing tensions between Russia and the West forced Armenia to cancel the signature, not to ruin relations with its strategic ally. Armenia and the EU started a new round of negotiations in late 2014, culminating with the signature of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in November 2017. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 05.05.2021
| External Relations
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The Realistic Policy of Armenia towards Nagorno-Karabakh
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The 2020 Karabakh war has dramatically changed the geopolitical status quo in the South Caucasus. Discussions have been underway in Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora about the reasons for the catastrophe and those responsible. Most probably, military defeat will be a key topic during the upcoming June 2021 snap parliamentary elections. The thorough analyses of what happened before, during, and after the war are mandatory tasks to be fulfilled. However, the key for Armenia now to elaborate a new policy towards the Karabakh conflict, taking into account the war results. The most significant issue here is to develop a realistic policy based on accurate calculations, Armenia’s resources, and the interests of external players; otherwise, Armenia may face another catastrophe. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.04.2021
| External Relations
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Beijing’s Long Road to the Gulf Region
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooperation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a region that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 17.04.2021
| External Relations
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Russian-Turkish Relations: Moscow Calls the Tune
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
The relationship between Russia and Turkey is an unequal one. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not like playing second fiddle in the Russian-Turkish orchestra, conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, at every twist and turn, Putin holds more leverage over Erdogan than the other way around.
Putin will cooperate with Turkey as long as it suits Russian interests. He would quickly end the relationship if Turkey were to turn against him and tried to return to the Western fold from which it has drifted away ever since the failed coup on 15 July 2016. Erdoğan is aware of this and, as a result, is leading Turkey ever deeper into the Russian fold since the European Union, the United States and NATO all remain suspicious of him and his administration’s goals and are simply unwilling to assist him in his various military activities in Libya, Syria and, most recently, in the South Caucasus. READ MORE.
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 17.04.2021
| External Relations
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Russian Goals in the Armenian Snap Parliamentary Elections
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Armenia is actively preparing for the 20 June 2021 snap parliamentary elections. Political parties are making their final calculations regarding the format of their participation. The main battle will probably occur between the incumbent prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan. The latter has already confirmed that he will lead an alliance of two or three parties. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the “Motherland” party, established by the former director of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsyan, and the new “Rebirth Armenia” party established by the former governor of the Syunik region, Vahe Hakobyan, which unites several mayors from the Syunik, may create an electoral bloc under the leadership of Robert Kocharyan. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 14.04.2021
| External Relations
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The Karabakh War: The Lessons of Defeat in the Cyberspace
By Lieutenant-General (Ret.) Hayk S. Kotanjian, PhD, Professor Strategic Security Studies
Reflecting on the lessons of the military aggression of Turkey and Azerbaijan against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the Republic of Armenia, strategic analysts of the security institutions and processes continue to monitor the dynamics of the peace-war around Karabakh in the context of the world order transformation. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the session of the Russian Security Council of March 26, 2021, emphasizing the exceptional role of cybersecurity, pointed out the strategic priority of the development of the cyberspace resources management system. In general, this coincides with the assessments of the special significance of this security sector, voiced recently by the US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 07.04.2021
| Security
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A Vote Largely Motivated by Hate in Armenia’s June ‘21 Elections
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Former president Robert Kocharyan has emerged as the strongest challenger to prime minister Nikol Pashinyan in Armenian’s forthcoming parliamentary elections. However, most voters are simply motivated by their hate of one or the other.
Armenia is looking forward to the snap parliamentary elections scheduled for June 20, 2021. According to the preliminary agreement between the ruling "My step" faction and the two parliamentary opposition parties, prime minister Nikol Pashinyan will resign at the end of April, beginning of May; Parliament will not elect a new prime minister twice; and will thereafter be automatically dissolved as provided for by the Armenian constitution. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 07.04.2021
| External Relations
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Are We Seeing a New National Strategy on Human Rights Emerging in Uzbekistan under President Mirziyoyev?
Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium
On June 22, 2020, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a Decree on Approval of the National Strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Human Rights. Much has been said about Uzbekistan’s efforts to reform and modernize multiple aspects of society and economy since Mirziyoyev became president in 2016. Human rights are a core area of national reform, in this respect. It should be noted from the outset that discussions around this subject in Uzbekistan during the early years of the country’s independence have not always focused on the most celebrated factors.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 07.04.2021
| Security
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Searching for the Right Formula for South Caucasus Regional Co-operation
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
President Erdogan’s initiative for a 3 + 3 regional co-operation format in the South Caucasus offers the possibility of opening up the region through an extensive network of land corridors. Not everyone has welcomed the initiative, but the prospect of turning a fragile region into a beacon of stability after a long period of instability and violence is a worthy aspiration.
The second Karabakh war has shifted the geopolitical and geo-economic realities in the South Caucasus region, particularly heightening the possibility of competition over the region’s transport corridors. The Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement signed on 10 November brings with it the possibility of opening a number of transit routes, which have been closed for almost 30 years. In the aftermath of the Armenian forces' devastating defeat in the 44-day war, the idea of regional co-operation becomes increasingly important. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 31.03.2021
| External Relations
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Armenia’s Endgame in the Aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh War Needs to be Clarified
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Still recovering from the war, it is not yet clear what Armenia's strategy is for Nagorno Karabakh. Without a coherent and consistent policy from the Armenian government, Armenia may lose what it retains of the enclave.
Almost four and half months after the end of the 2020 Karabakh war, Armenia has not yet recovered. Society is grappling with lingering questions about the reasons for the staggering defeat. The fate of the remaining Armenian prisoners of war in Azerbaijan, whose POW status Azerbaijan refuses to accept, is a top priority. The ongoing de facto border demarcation process in the Syunik region, and looming demarcations in other regions, have put additional stress on society. The current political crisis and upcoming June 20, 2021, snap parliamentary elections do not help restore stability. Different political forces actively discuss possible changes in the electoral code, and even the possibility of making some amendments to the Constitution before the elections. However, apart from the daily ups and downs of politics, Armenia faces a bigger task: that of clarifying its stance on fundamental issues regarding the new status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 31.03.2021
| Security
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