Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert

The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE

• Elkhan Nuriyev  |  Published on EGF: 16.01.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• European Commission extends deadline for final decision on OPAL pipeline to the end of January 2015
• Gazprom and BASF abandon asset-swap agreement
• Gazprom resumes gas supplies to Ukraine, the first since June 2014
  - Background of the dispute
  - The importance of gas storage reserves in Ukraine
• Gazprom signs new gas supply and transit contracts with Belarus to cover 2015-17
• Russia and China sign framework agreement on second pipeline, via the ‘western route’
  - Background of the ‘eastern route’
  - Comparing the two projects
• Estonia imports first gas via Lithuania, a symbolic first step away from Russia

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.01.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 November – 31 December 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announces the annulment of the South Stream project, proposing instead a new pipeline to run from Russia to Turkey.
• President Putin and Turkish counterpart Tayyip Recep Erdogan meet and discuss converging views on economic and energy issues, but note their stark differences on the Syrian Civil War.
• The two countries’ partnership in economic and energy sectors has yet to thaw their strategic divergence in regional affairs, especially in light of Russia’s disputed annexation of Crimea and the different approaches to the conflict in Syria.
• Gulen Movement adherents, including the chief editor of the country’s largest daily newspaper, are arrested on allegations of their part in a coup conspiracy.
• Both the Trans-Adriatic and Trans-Anatolian pipeline projects might be boosted by South Stream’s demise, as the two projects lead the way in the burgeoning Southern Gas Corridor.
• Turkey will stick to its deficit cutting plans despite low energy import prices, though unemployment continues to rise while the lira loses value to the American dollar.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.01.2015  |  External Relations
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Special Report on South Stream as Gazprom Abandons the Project and Announces a New Gas Pipeline to Turkey
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Special In-Depth Report on South Stream
Gazprom abandons project, proposes new pipeline to Turkey
On the 1st of December, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, made a significant announcement: the South Stream gas pipeline project has been abandoned, and Gazprom is proposing a pipeline to Turkey as a replacement.
The in-depth report that follows provides background information on the South Stream project, and highlights the difficulties faced by the project long before the decision was taken to abandon it. The report then considers the merits of the proposed alternative – a pipeline to Turkey – before concluding with an analysis of the winners and losers from the decision to abandon South Stream. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.12.2014  |  External Relations
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EGF has released a combined summary document, including analysis, pictures, and other information from both the Brussels and Berlin Stakeholder Consultation rounds. Please click here for the PDF publication.

• EGF Editorial  |   |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
16 Sep. – 15 Nov. 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Syrian border town of Kobane becomes a symbolic battleground between the Islamic State (ISIS) and the American-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG. Turkey sits out the fight, deeming both sides to be terrorists.
• Ankara, while insisting on increased American involvement in the form of regime change in Damascus, allows Kurdish Peshmerga from Iraq to cross into the besieged town.
• The ruling AKP’s attempts to curb free speech on the Internet draw the ire of domestic and international observers.
• Fitch remains reassured of Turkey’s stability for the time being, but a host of issues stemming from the country’s unstable neighbourhood threaten to undermine medium-term growth prospects.
• Turkey remains vulnerable to gas cuts due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. However, Turkey’s work on diversifying energy imports continues. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is set to increase oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan before the New Year, while improved relations with Greece may give Turkey another foot in the European energy market.
• Despite setbacks in early October, the PKK peace process remains intact. The government must take another step in giving Turkey’s Kurds a reason to stay at the table, though the final decision on whether the peace holds may be left to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
• TANAP moves forward, but the inclusion of Turkmen gas may likely require the completion of a Trans-Caspian pipeline.
• Turkish-owned Genel signs an agreement to begin preparations for the production of two Kurdish Regional Government gas fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The news comes as Baghdad and Erbil finally agree to revenue and budget sharing, after months of strife.
• President Erdogan offers bold pronouncements on the history of the Americas and Western duplicity in Syria at a conference of Latin American Islamic scholars.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• European Commission further postpones ruling on use of OPAL pipeline
• Gazprom and Wintershall finalise asset-swap, as Gazprom gains control of Europe’s largest underground gas storage facility (UGSF)
• Lithuania breaks free of Gazprom monopoly with first LNG delivery
• Gazprom and Naftogaz agree on short-term ‘winter package’ until March 2015 to ensure gas supplies and transit during the upcoming winter
• Nord Stream: Nord Stream AG deny reports that plans to extend Nord Stream to the UK will be shelved amid tensions between Russia and the EU
• South Stream: Hungarian MVM shows its support for Gazprom with gas storage deal; MVM also pledges to complete the Hungarian section of South Stream by 2017
• Gazprom CEO holds talks, discusses funding from Chinese banks and gas supply via the ‘Western Route’
• Gazprom refills Serbian gas storage facility to capacity in preparation for winter

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.11.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• EU antitrust investigation: suspended but not finished
• Lithuanian government continues with arbitration case against Gazprom
• Gazprom struggles to meet European gas demand beyond contracted levels as winter approaches
• European gas prices continue to fall – Gazprom could face revenue shortage
• Gazprom and Ukraine – new round of trilateral gas talks imminent as winter approaches
• Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Poland, Slovakia, and Austria – a warning against ‘reverse flow’?
• Hungary sides with Gazprom against Ukraine
• Nord Stream: European Commission delays decision on OPAL pipeline until 31st of October
• South Stream: EU cannot halt South Stream construction, but threatens action upon completion of the pipeline
• South Stream: EU puts pressure on Serbia to halt South Stream construction
• Gazprom could sign second contract for gas deliveries to China, this time via the ‘Western Route’
• Gazprom agrees to expand the capacity of Blue Stream pipeline from 16 bcm to 19 bcm per year

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.10.2014  |  External Relations
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The second stakeholder consultation round in EGF's ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh research took place on 06-08 July 2014 in Berlin (Germany), including introduction of a post-conflict scenario building workshop. More than 30 experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and international partner NGOs and institutions attended this highly successful event, held in a constructive atmosphere of exchange. It has been the first step towards exploring the idea of a roadmap leading towards an economically integrated South Caucasus, and created a platform for exchange of information between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts. During the post-conflict scenario building workshop, regional participants simulated the negotiation of a roadmap for the implementation of economic components of a peace agreement built upon the Madrid principles, encompassing joint economic measures in areas such as energy, transport, trade, rehabilitation of the territories affected by the conflict, and the return of IDPs to their homeland.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.09.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during Aug. 16th - Sept. 15th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• New Prime Minister Ahmet Davuglotu announces his cabinet with few surprises, save the re-appointment of economic policy heads Ali Babacan and Mehmet Simsek. The cabinet will continue to carry out its predecessor’s policies, though Turkey’s de facto leader remains President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• Turkey declines to actively support American-led airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. Its reluctance, despite the continued imprisonment of 49 hostages by IS, has drawn the ire of critics in the West, who accuse it of failing to confront the jihadist fighters.
• Syria’s refugees in Turkey look to swell to 1.5 million by the end of 2014. Their presence outside of the few refugee camps is giving rise to resentment amongst Turkey’s citizens.
• The Babacan and Simsek appointments to the prime minister’s cabinet have soothed market concerns about the stewardship of the country’s economy, though slower growth in the coming years looks to be the next great challenge for the ruling AKP.
• Turkish national oil company TPAO secures a 19 percent stake in the Shah Deniz-2 gas field, while Kurdish oil continues to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan despite the protestations of the Iraqi central government in Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.09.2014  |  External Relations
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