A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• EU antitrust investigation into Gazprom – victim of the deterioration in EU-Russia relations?
• Nord Stream - Russian sources report imminent ruling from European Commission on OPAL pipeline
• South Stream - Bulgaria halts work on South Stream for a second time. Or does it?; Srbijagas announces that work is proceeding as scheduled, despite last month’s warning from the EU that the project should be halted
• Gazprom and Ukraine - Ukrainian Energy Ministry proposes ‘interim’ agreement with Gazprom, pending results of arbitration; Naftogaz opens pipeline from Slovakia; Ukrainian parliament votes to allow leasing of gas transmission system; Naftogaz returns $10m of ‘unused’ transit fees to Gazprom
• Asia-Pacific region - Gazprom launches construction of ‘Power of Siberia’ gas pipeline to China
• Gazprom takes delivery of its fifth LNG tanker, brings fleet capacity to 800,000 m3; Gazprom gas production in 2014 expected to fall vs. 2013

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.09.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16th-Aug 15th-2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan becomes the first popularly elected president of the Turkish Republic, capturing 51.7 percent of the vote and avoiding a run off.
• Since the Presidency is still a largely ceremonial post, expect President-elect Erdogan to push hard for the 2015 parliamentary elections where an AKP majority win could pave the way for a constitutional change that empowers the executive branch.
• Turkey tries to help the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq hold the line, while negotiations continue for Turkish hostages held by the Islamic State (IS).
• Following the latest Hamas-Israeli clash in the Gaza Strip, Turkey foreswears all cooperation with the Jewish state until the combat stops.
• Turkey continues to balance economic ties between Erbil and Baghdad over oil shipments from the KRG, while the South Stream gas pipeline passes an environmental impact study off the Turkish Black Sea coast.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.08.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom and the EU – EU antitrust investigators continue to prepare ‘statement of objections’; Gazprom excluded from expanded EU sanctions list
• Nord Stream – Planned capacity auction for OPAL cancelled, as European Commission postpones ruling indefinitely
• South Stream - Gazprom subsidiary Centrgaz is awarded the construction contract for South Stream in Serbia; Bulgarian government willing to listen to the European Commission over South Stream; European Commission recommends that Serbia halt work on South Stream pending legal clarifications
• Gazprom and Ukraine - Naftogaz and Ukrainian government announce plan to avoid Russian gas imports until March 2015; Ukrainian government and Naftogaz disagree over reports of reduced gas deliveries from Europe to Ukraine; Gazprom and Naftogaz arbitration cases could be combined
• Asia-Pacific region - Gazprom continues design process for proposed Vladivostok LNG terminal
• Elena Burmistrova replaces Alexander Medvedev as Director-General of Gazprom Export

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.08.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 May – 16 July 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Iraq implodes as the Islamic State (IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or alternatively the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) allies with Iraqi Sunnis to overtake large swaths of the country’s northwest, including the city of Mosul. Turkish hostages are taken in the city, and the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq halts IS’s march towards oil-rich Kirkuk.
• Turkey balks at an independent Kurdistan, but in the long run, a stable and secular Kurdish state might become a better alternative to IS on its borders.
• The CHP and MHP nominate religiously conservative Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu as their presidential candidate, while the Kurdish HDP’s Selahattin Demirtas may play kingmaker if Prime Minister Erdogan enters a runoff in the August election.
• Parliament passes groundbreaking law moving the PKK peace talks forward, just in time for the presidential election.
• The Central Bank continues to resist demands by the prime minister to sharply cut interest rates.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 23.07.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lithuania’s competition authority fines Gazprom $48m for ‘failing to comply with merger conditions’ in relation to its shareholding in Lietuvos Dujos, thus stifling competition in Lithuania’s gas market
• Gazprom sells its stakes in Lietuvos Dujos and Amber Grid
• European gas companies negotiated an average discount of 20 percent in 2013-14, according to Cedigaz
• Gazprom implements prepayment in Ukraine, meaning that Naftogaz will only receive gas for which it has already paid. Given that Naftogaz failed to pay up front for its June gas supplies, the practical result was the suspension of Gazprom deliveries to Naftogaz
• Bulgaria halts construction of South Stream, pending EU concerns over the tender process for its construction on Bulgarian territory
• Gazprom and OMV confirm Austria’s entry into the South Stream project
• Gazprom expects $25bn pre-payment in China gas deal, but terms yet to be finalised
• Rosneft claims that a Gazprom monopoly on domestic pipelines in the Russian Far East would be illegal, and promises legal action to secure its right to supply Russian consumers in the region
• Results of Gazprom's Annual General Meeting of Shareholders

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.07.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Special report on the Gazprom-CNPC gas deal: Gazprom was always unlikely to achieve ‘European’ prices for its gas exports to China, but the deal with CNPC is crucial to the development of gas production and transportation in East Siberia and Russia’s Far East
• In-depth report on the latest developments in the Gazprom-Naftogaz dispute: Gazprom switches to pre-payment, and demands that Naftogaz pay up front for its June gas supplies. If Naftogaz fails to pay by the 2nd of June, Gazprom’s supplies to Naftogaz to could be halted the following day
• EU antitrust damages directive approved by European Parliament, and passed to EU Council of Ministers for final approval
• Gazprom and Lietuvos Dujos reach agreement on gas price for Lithuania, as Lithuania continues to negotiate for alternative supplies
• Eni signs landmark agreement with Gazprom to switch to spot pricing in existing long-term gas supply contract
• South Stream could get a 32 bcm spur from Hungary to Austria
• Gazprom Marketing and Trading Ltd and CNPC each agree to buy 3 million tonnes of LNG per year for the next 20 years from Novatek’s Yamal LNG project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.06.2014  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics between 16 April – 15 May 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey faces up to the worst mining disaster in its history, while the prime minister bungles the official response. A deputy chief of staff for Erdogan is photographed kicking a protester, and accusations are levelled that the prime minister himself struck another.
• Turkey’s top judge, with the prime minister in attendance, rebukes Erdogan in public statements in light of government criticism of the country’s top courts.
• While Turkey’s economic growth relies on substantial imports of Russian energy, the fate of the Crimean Tatars seems to remain outside the Turkish regional agenda.
• Alawites and Alevis, two religious minorities who largely support the opposition CHP, face an increasingly uncertain political future.
• In remarks to an American journalist, Prime Minister Erdogan says the country will pursue extradition of Fethullah Gulen from the U.S.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 22.05.2014  |  External Relations
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By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE

* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

• Armen Grigoryan  |  Published on EGF: 13.05.2014  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• Special report on Ukraine: Naftogaz, Gazprom, debts and prices: the saga continues
• In a bid to limit its dependence on Russian gas, Naftogaz seeks alternative supplies from Europe
• South Stream divides EU as OMV (Austria) breaks ranks to sign deal
• EU continues formulating ‘statement of objections’ in antitrust probe as Gazprom and EU representatives confirm interest in retaining mutually beneficial energy relations
• Russian government seeks talks with EU over energy legislation in possible first step towards WTO arbitration
• Gazprom claims progress in talks with CNPC, expects contract to be signed in May
• Gazprom reports 2013 financial results in accordance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS)
• Gazprom and Turkey consider expansion of Blue Stream from 16 bcm to 19 bc

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.05.2014  |  External Relations
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Issue # 16
05/05/2014
Pro-Russian insurgents have shot down two Ukrainian helicopters in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk and hit another one. There are victims. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.05.2014  |  External Relations
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