Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visits Mogadishu on a famine aid mission, the first visit by a non-African head of state in nearly 20 years. The trip is a huge boost to Turkey’s international image.
  
• Violence in the south-east of the country continues, leading to Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) cross-border raids into Iraq.
  
• Following criticism from the US Secretary of State, the justice ministry contradicts the number of journalists said to be held by Turkish authorities.
  
• Ankara continues to condemn the Syrian regime despite not calling for the resignation of President Bashar al- Assad. The country wins a seat at the Paris meeting of the new Libyan government following the apparent collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
  
• Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to negotiate a gas transit agreement, while Turkey’s reliance on foreign energy imports has reportedly increased 5 % since the AKP came to power.
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2011  |  Energy
•  

Issue 7: June-July 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

This year, Gazprom is likely to report an income of about $60 billion from the export of 158 bcm of gas to Europe, according to expert estimates. This represents a 12 percent growth in income compared to the previous year and, according to Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom’s Board of Executive Directors, the company’s profits will be close to the record-breaking levels of 2008, when its income from exports reached $65 bn. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.08.2011  |  Energy
•  

A wide strip of mainland and continental shelf territory starting from the Rus- sian sector of the Arctic up to the Arabian Peninsula can be labelled an Arctic - Arabian hydrocarbon belt (CH-belt) of Eurasia. It is the strip where the major mainland oil and gas fields are located on the territory of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula countries. As the production of hydrocarbons has been developing, transport routes to the markets of their consumption, the major of which is the European Union, started to branch off this diagonal CH-belt of Eurasia in the latitudinal direction. Practically, these transport routes connect the area of production (upstream) with the consumption market (downstream).

• Mykhailo Gonchar, Alexander Duleba, Oleksandr Malynovskyi  |  Published on EGF: 27.06.2011  |  Energy
•  

Issue 6: May 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, seems to be optimistic about the possibility of obtaining Russian credits to rescue the Belarusian economy. On May 17, he stated that Moscow was ready to lend Minsk $6 billion in 2011. However, the Kremlin responded by suggesting that it will only lend $1 billion and that even this amount will only be possible in combination with the sale of a number of Belarusian assets, notably a 50 percent stake in Beltransgas. Gazprom already holds a 50 percent stake in the company. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.06.2011  |  Energy
•  

Issue 5: April 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

On April 25 of this year Gazprom head, Alexei Miller, predicted that the price of gas sold to European gas consumers would increase to $500 per 1,000 cubic metres by the end of 2011. This suggests a price hike of almost 40 percent as currently the average European gas price is $350 per 1,000 cubic metres. While Gazprom officials do make public references to limitations to increases in the gas price, most such comments tend to refer to Russian domestic gas prices. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  Energy
•  

Issue 4: March 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute between the Lithuanian Government and Gazprom continues. As we wrote in the preceding issue of the Gazprom Monitor, the dispute flared up after the Russian monopoly refused to give Vilnius the same gas price discount that it grants to the other Baltic States. Consequently, the Lithuanian side is forced to pay high gas prices. In response, Vilnius is trying to use the implementation of the Third Energy Package, in relation to the gas transport system of the country, as a lever of pressure against Gazprom. In the end this may bring about both a rupture in the agreement on the privatisation of Lietuvos dujos (37 percent of which belongs to Gazprom) and the separation of control over gas transmission pipelines from companies which own them. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.04.2011  |  Energy
•  

By Hrvoje Ćiković, Expert on EU Integration, Energy Security and New Diplomacy

In recent years energy security has become not only a political buzzword but a fundamental concept in (re)shaping relations between governments within the framework of a newly emerging global energy order. Furthermore, factors such as the growing asymmetrical dependence of energy consuming states on producing states, the delicate question of transport (particularly the definition of future pipeline routes), changing trends of economic development, and geopolitical tensions tend to distort established negotiating positions and shift the balance of global power relations. In such a complicated context, it is easy to overlook developments in countries such as Poland which are not in the international spotlight. As Poland has shown resilience in avoiding recession and is becoming an important player in the international arena, it may be interesting to examine the actual dynamics and the core challenges of the country’s energy sector. READ MORE

• Hrvoje Ćiković  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Energy
•  

Issue 3: February 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute over the implementation of the EU Third Energy Package in Lithuania continues: the question of Europe’s energy security topped the agenda of the first ever EU energy summit which took place in Brussels on 4 February (2011). The summit began with a speech on the integrated EU energy market and general energy policy towards third countries. Special attention is being given to Russia and the dispute between Gazprom and the Government of Lithuania, which has arisen from plans to nationalise gas transmission pipelines belonging to Lietuvos Dujos. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.03.2011  |  Energy
•  

February 2011

Key positions:

• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.

• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.

• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.

• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.03.2011  |  Energy
•  

Tectonic changes are occurring not only in the world financial system, trading and investment, energy, geopolitics, and technology; a fundamental transformation is also underway in the way the cities have been managed and regenerated, creating profound implications for mega-cities such as Istanbul. The global population is congregating in our cities. Eighty per cent of the world’s estimated nine billion people in 2050 are expected to live in urban areas. Our cities and urban areas face many challenges from social to health to environmental. The impacts of cities and urban areas are felt in other regions which supply cities with food, water and energy and absorb pollution and waste. However, the proximity of people, businesses and services associated with the very word ‘city’ means that there are also huge opportunities. Indeed, well designed, well managed urban settings offer a key opportunity for sustainable living.

Myriad trends indicate that the current world energy system is far from being sustainable. It will be shaped by rising demand over the long term, dominance of fossil fuels, inaccessible supplies, price volatility, inadequate investment, geopolitical tensions, and climate change. The most pressing decision facing the next generation may be how best to accelerate the transition from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to a system based on climate-friendly energy alternatives. Turkey has emerged as an important actor to reckon with as a consumer, transporter, investor, regional hub, and security provider in world energy and geopolitics. Likewise, Istanbul as a global city and gateway to the world’s major producers and consumers offers so much opportunities for energy investment, conservation, efficiency, distribution and shipment. It also faces serious energy-related challenges including from climate change, congestion, power black-outs, and local pollution. READ MORE

• Mehmet Öğütçü  |  Published on EGF: 02.02.2011  |  Energy
•