Protests in Iran and Implications for Armenia
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
”Recent waves of protests in Iran that broke out as a result of the Government decision to significantly raise gasoline prices, pose potential problems to all of its neighbors, including Armenia. One of the most critical problems can be the possible influx of refugees into the territory of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
Domestic instability in Iran is a source of concern for all its neighbors, including Armenia. Iran is one of the only two open borders Armenia has to reach the outside world. Any significant weakening of Iranian state institutions may complicate the export and import operations through Iran which definitely will put additional pressure on the Armenian economy. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 26.11.2019
| External Relations
-
South Caucasus in 2020
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South Caucasus too. The region witnessed Armenian “Velvet revolution” in 2018, the protests and change of government in Georgia in June – September 2019 and, most recently, significant political transformations in Azerbaijan resulting in resignation of many key representatives of old ruling elites. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 20.11.2019
| External Relations
-
Turkey-NATO Relations: Strained and Constrained By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Turkey-NATO relations have a history of challenges more or less since Turkey’s accession to NATO in 1952. Strained relations between Turkey and NATO have begun long before Turkey’s alleged failed coup attempt on 15 July 2016. However, the failed coup attempt increased tensions further and it is fair to assume that these tense relations are likely to continue. At the same time, Turkey-NATO relations are constrained by a not yet amended North Atlantic Treaty of 4 April 1949. As long as the treaty remains not updated very little can be done to change the nature of Turkey-NATO relations. READ MORE.
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 20.11.2019
| Security
-
Russia, China and the West. And Armenia in the Middle
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Prospects of Russia - China relations are currently hotly debated by international security pundits. The West in general, and the US in particular, see these two states as key adversaries seeking to undermine the international world order. Simultaneously, the prevailing mood among Western expert and academic circles is confident that, at the end of the day, China is a more significant challenge to Russia than it is to the West, given the vast and scarcely populated areas of Siberia and the Russian Far East bordering China. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 11.11.2019
| External Relations
-
Perspectives of the US – China Relations and Implications for the Post-Soviet Space
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The US – China relations are usually described as the most powerful force to shape the global security architecture for the upcoming decades. They have gone through tremendous transformations over the recent 45 years. The opening to China launched by the Nixon Administration was part of a US strategy to deter and contain the Soviet Union. Since the late 1980s the US have accelerated its economic relations with China creating a heavy interdependence. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 04.11.2019
| External Relations
-
The 100th Issue of Gazprom Monitor
By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas
Dear Colleagues,
It is with great pride that we send you this 100th edition of the Gazprom Monitor.
The Gazprom Monitor was the brainchild of Dr Marat Terterov, Founder of the European Geopolitical Forum and the Brussels Energy Club. The first issue of the Gazprom Monitor was published in December 2010. […] Since that first edition, almost nine years ago, we have seen the launch of Nord Stream, the replacement of South Stream and Nabucco by the Turkish Stream and TANAP-TAP pipelines, a dramatic increase in the use of hub-indexation in place of oil-indexation in Gazprom’s long-term export contracts, the conduct and settlement of the EU antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom, the launch of Gazprom’s own Electronic Sales Platform, the completion of Gazprom’s acquisition of the Belarusian gas pipeline system, the long-running sagas of the Gazprom-Naftogaz and Gazprom-Lithuania arbitration cases, the cessation of direct Ukrainian gas imports from Russia, the sale of Gazprom’s shares in pipelines in the Baltic states, the launch of new LNG import terminals in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Poland, and France, opening the door to competing LNG from around the world including, most recently, from the United States, and the volume of Gazprom’s annual gas exports to Europe growing to record levels in 2017 and 2018.READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 30.10.2019
| Energy
-
Russia Proposes to Build Nuclear Power Plant in Azerbaijan
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On October 3, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an official visit to Russia to attend the 16th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, in Sochi (President.az, October 3). Aliyev’s speech at the high-level event touched on multiple topics, including Azerbaijan’s partnership with Russia, the unresolved issue of Karabakh, and regional security in the South Caucasus region, to name a few. Notably, during his remarks, Aliyev declared, “Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan—exclamation point!” which sparked heated discussions in both Azerbaijani and Armenian mass media and online (Turan Agency, October 4). READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.10.2019
| Energy
-
Turkey’s Incursion into Syria: What Lessons Should Armenia Take?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The eight and half years of Syrian conflict saw various, sometimes very strange, ups and downs. Everything started as an uprising against the authoritarian state with demands for democratic reforms. Later the situation transformed into civil war with growing influence of foreign fighters. In 2014, the Islamic State entered the stage making President Assad less evil for the West. Then Russia intervened militarily and changed the course of the war effectively saving Assad. In 2016 and 2018 Turkey launched two military operations taking under control parts of North-Western Syria. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.10.2019
| Security
-
On Karabakh the Focus should Be on Confidence-Building Measures
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The Karabakh conflict settlement process continues to interest regional security pundits. Yet, despite the growing optimism after the "Velvet revolution" in Armenia, in recent months, the prevailing mood has been more pessimistic. The two meetings between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the beginning of 2019, and negotiations at the level of the foreign ministers, did not result in any breakthrough. The significant decrease in the number of incidents along the line of contact and on the Armenia-Azerbaijan international border since October 2018 is a positive step, although one can also see recent increases in clashes resulting in casualties on both sides. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.10.2019
| Security
-
Azerbaijan in 2020: Recent Developments and Future Foreign Policy Challenges
By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku
At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.10.2019
| External Relations
-