Ceasefire Violations Down as Armenia and Azerbaijan Implement South Caucasus Study Group Recommendation By EGF Editorial Staff
Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population.
According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 11.12.2018
| Security
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Belarus and Azerbaijan Enhance Their Strategic Military Partnership
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 11.12.2018
| External Relations
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Iran Crisis — The First Step towards the Establishment of New Multi-layered World Order? By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 05.12.2018
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China – US Relations: The Need for Talks to Overcome Misperceptions By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
As experts and politicians all over the world seek to grasp the key contours of emerging world order, sometimes dubbed the Post-Post-Cold War Era, there are few things agreed upon by the vast majority of them. Only one issue is clear: US – China relations will define the course of the 21st century. Will the US be able to accommodate the rise of China, keeping its role as a top global power? Will China be ready to be a part of the Western-created world order? Or will it try to do that, simultaneously amending it to Beijing’s goal to establish China as a centered global order? READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 26.11.2018
| External Relations
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Could Vladimir Putin’s Visit to Azerbaijan Shift the Regional Balance of Power?
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise official visit to Azerbaijan, on September 27. The formal reason for his arrival was to hold talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as well as to jointly attend the Ninth Interregional Russia-Azerbaijan Forum. Local mass media in both Azerbaijan and Russia described Putin’s visit as a next significant step in improving the strategic partnership between the two countries. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 15.10.2018
| External Relations
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Emerging Global Order: Implications for the Regional Geopolitics By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The current phase of the international relations can be best characterized by one word – transition. The Post-cold war order is rapidly disappearing creating strategic ambiguity for all actors. The U.S. hegemony is over or close to over despite the fact that militarily Washington will be far from the reach for several decades to come. However, growing national debt, looming crisis in social security and Medicare systems, uncontrolled migration, growing populism, and partisan fighting does not bode well for the future U.S. dominance. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 12.10.2018
| External Relations
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Armenia’s Unique Geopolitical Reality: An Asset for NATO’s Stability Projection Southwards By Vahagn AFYAN, Deputy head of Mission, Embassy of the Republic of Armenia to Poland
How can Armenia’s geopolitical context contribute to stability in its immediate vicinity and in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood?
This paper will consider Armenia’s geopolitical location from the perspective of NATO’s Southern neighbourhood and examine its cohesion, dependability and potential contribution to NATO’s intended task of projecting stability. With regard to NATO and its relationship with Armenia, the first step is to create a better understanding of the particularities of the country and its policy. Increased knowledge of the ongoing integration processes affecting various political, economic and military aspects, as well as internal political developments, will allow a full exploration of the potential for strategic partnership between the Alliance and Armenia. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 18.09.2018
| Security
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Russia’s Policy of Deception and Denial By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
A policy of deception and denial is the cornerstone of Russia‘s overarching strategy of confusion, paralysis and ultimately defeat of the opponent.
Consistency, conviction and perseverance are key words to describe the policy of deception and denial. The cases presented below shed light on the consistent pattern of President Vladimir Putin’s government to deceive others and depict Russia as the one that comes to the aid of the underdogs, whether in Georgia, Ukraine or elsewhere. Syria is a special case where Russia cannot abandon its military bases to aggressive Western powers. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 10.09.2018
| Security
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Tensions Rising In & Around Iran By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
President Trump’s decision to pull out from the Iranian nuclear deal has significantly increased tensions in and around Iran. The return of “regime change” policy will have profound implications on Iran and the Middle East. The Iranian economy is in steep decline with the sharp devaluation of the Iranian Rial and large-scale protest rallies in different regions. The rising prices of consumer products, shortages of water and problems related with mismanagement are fuelling the protests. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 09.07.2018
| External Relations
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Turkey's Post Elections Policy in the South Caucasus By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Turkey's strategic alliance with Azerbaijan, trilateral co-operation including Georgia and its efforts to transform itself into a regional energy hub will continue to be the main features of the Erdogan government policy in the South Caucasus.
24 June 2018 was a big day for Turkish domestic politics. Turkey elected both the President and the Parliament. Given the sweeping constitutional changes approved in the April 2017 referendum, the new President has become an almighty figure in Turkey. Despite various assessments envisaging hard times for the incumbent Turkish President, Erdogan managed to win the race without entering into a possibly dangerous run-off. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 03.07.2018
| External Relations
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