Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Reports leak about the training of Turkish soldiers for missions to secure Syria’s weapons of mass destruction.
• Construction is underway on Kurdish Regional Government’s pipeline projects to Turkey. The project continues to be a thorn in the side of Baghdad, alienating it from Ankara as well as Erbil.
• KRG-Turkish cooperation is also key in Ankara’s efforts at creating a counterweight to the PYD in Syria, with pro-Masoud Barzani groups seen as a better option than PKK sympathetic militant groups.
• Turkey’s judicial and penal systems come under scrutiny despite substantial EU funding to improve prisoners living conditions.
• In a move to diversify away from cleaner gas-powered electrical production plants, tenders for coal powered plants are on the rise. The growth in coal power plants is part of a government effort to lessen reliance on gas supplies from Russia and Iran.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 07.02.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
by Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom is under pressure from all sides. European energy companies request further gas price discounts, export volumes fell in 2012 and are expected to remain weak in 2013, PM Medvedev suggests that Gazprom’s export monopoly could be revoked, and Gazprom faces criticism from Europe and the United States over its bid for Greece’s state-owned gas utility, DEPA.
• Gazprom slaps Naftogaz with a $7bn bill for failing to purchase sufficient amounts of gas in 2012.
• The Czech section of Nord Steam, Gazelle, is launched as Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, declares an expansion of Nord Stream to be ‘feasible’ despite the pipeline operating at well below capacity since its launch
• Gazprom and the Croatian State-owned energy company, Plinacro, to set up a joint venture in mid-2013 for the construction of a spur from South Stream into Croatia, while Serbia is set to grant South Stream ‘national status’
• Gazprom signs an agreement with Novatek to produce LNG on the Yamal Peninsula, with Asia the predicted export destination
• Gazprom lobbies the Russian government for Shtokman tax breaks as the Russian government considers revoking the Gazprom-Rosneft monopoly on offshore gas and oil production in Russia

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 02
01/28/2013
Former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko has rejected the charges of organizing the murder of politician and businessman Yevhen Shcherban, her daughter Yevheniya said on 22 January 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 30.01.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 01
01/21/2013
Tymoshenko faces charges of organizing murder; life sentence possible.
On 18 January 2013, Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka said that Yuliya Tymoshenko and Pavlo Lazarenko, both former prime ministers, were to face charges of organizing a contract killing. He said that the investigation established that Tymoshenko and Lazarenko had paid 2.8m dollars to have politician and businessman Yevhen Shcherban killed in 1996 in a dispute over business interests. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey makes progress on the Kurdish issue, conducting unilateral talks with Abdullah Ocalan. Most Turks appear to support the government’s actions, but the assassination of a PKK co-founder in Paris raises concerns of sabotaging any future agreement.
• The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) begins oil shipments to Turkey while its relationship with Baghdad continues to deteriorate. Moves by the Iraqi government to bring Kirkuk under military control result in Turkey having to take sides in another civil war.
• The Turkish stock market produced positive returns for investors in 2012, well above the losses experienced by the Eurozone and U.S. But concerns rise over growing credit expansion according to Fitch’s latest report.
• Gazprom’s take or pay contracts end, resulting in over $3 billion in savings for Turkey. Meanwhile, the country invests in large scale refinery upgrades that will double its crude refining capacity. Energy Minister Yildiz visits Algeria and Libya to renew one energy deal in the former and promote investment in the latter.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2013  |  External Relations
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By Anna Ohanyan, EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building

There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE

• Anna Ohanyan  |  Published on EGF: 15.01.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey receives permission to post NATO’s Patriot missile batteries in the country’s south to combat potential attacks from Syrian Scuds
• The potential of Kurdish-Arab splits in the Syrian civil war continue to drag Ankara further into the deteriorating situation in the country.
• The Central Bank begins implementing a plan to protect the country’s banks from risky investment, while the government’s monetary policy seeks to ease inflation caused by expanding domestic credit availability.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s presence sparks protests at an Istanbul university, with the ensuing violence
• employed as a “stick” with which to beat the ruling AKP by opposition parties.
• Erdogan’s office reportedly tapped; prime minister claims by the Deep State. However a lack of definitive perpetrators leaves many questions as to the validity to the claims.
• KRG Prime Minister Barzani assures U.S. on proposed Turk-Kurd pipeline, claims disputes with Baghdad should remain in the economic, not political realm.
• Shah Deniz II considers buying into Nabucco West, while Ukraine responds to South Stream by exploring a potential membership in TANAP.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Reports claim that Gazprom plans lower European gas export prices for 2013 in a bid to compete with spot price contracts, while Russian officials continue to press for exemptions from the Third Energy Package for Nord Stream and South Stream
• Sources report that Gazprom could lower its gas export price for Ukraine for 2013 from the predicted $421 per thousand cubic metres to $352, as Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, announces a last-minute postponement of his meeting with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow to discuss Russian-Ukrainian energy relations
• Gazprom holds a ceremony to mark the start of the construction of South Stream, but the EU remains sceptical about the implementation of the project due to the lack of necessary assessments and permits
• The Estonian government refuses permission for Nord Stream AG to conduct research in Estonia’s territorial waters, as part of plans for Nord Stream’s proposed expansion
• Gazprom’s second-largest European customer, Turkey, proposes increasing its Russian gas imports by 3 bcm ‘in the near future’
• Gazprom restarts high-level talks with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over Russian gas deliveries to China, with the two sides united by a focus on the Altai pipeline, but divided over gas prices
• Two months after missing out to Rosneft on a lucrative deal to supply gas to Russian electricity utility, Inter RAO, Novatek signs a $4bn deal to supply 27 bcm to Moscow-based electricity generator, Mosenergo, as Gazprom loses more of the domestic Russian gas market

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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Special Edition
12/24/2012
On 24 December 2012, President Viktor Yanukovych appointed a new cabinet chaired by Mykola Azarov.
The first deputy prime minister (overseeing agricultural policy, economy, trade, social policy, finance, earnings and levies), Serhiy Arbuzov (previously the governor of the National Bank of Ukraine). READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 26.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #49
12/18/2012
On 13 December 2012, the European Parliament issued a resolution calling on the Ukrainian authorities to respect and implement the final rulings of the European Court of Human Rights on the cases of Yuliya Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko. It also said Ukraine needed to reform its judiciary and improve its electoral legislation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.12.2012  |  External Relations
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