In a recent briefing on Russia, this Forum expressed the view that Moscow is becoming an increasingly assertive regional player in the wider Black and Caspian Sea (BCS) basin and that energy remains a key Russian priority for the region. We commented in that report that the Russian state-controlled energy holding, Gazprom, provided Moscow with a significant instrument to exercise power in the region. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.08.2010  |  Markets
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• Marat Terterov and Marco C. Pantelakis  |  Published on EGF: 04.08.2010  |  External Relations
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Exerting influence in the wider Black and Caspian Seas region is becoming a crucial element in Russia’s current geopolitical strategy. Energy and security are two of Moscow’s primary concerns relating to the region. Turkey, the EU, and the United States, as well as international energy companies will have to be aware of the operational instruments which Moscow has been deploying as part of its geopolitical strategy in the region, which include:
1) inserting itself into the domestic political affairs of its post-Soviet neighbors;
2) simultaneously acting as a crisis mediator/peacekeeper and fostering regional tension to provoke further crisis;
3) behaving as the regional “strong man” in the name of protecting Russian minorities;
4) strengthening energy ties with other former-Soviet Republics in the region; and
5) striking bilateral commercial deals with select Western corporate partners and governments. The deployment of such instruments will ensure that Moscow’s approach to regional geopolitics will remain purposefully unpredictable and full of intrigue, and will invariably continue to take other regional actors by surprise. READ MORE

• Marat Terterov, John Van Pool, Sergiy Nagornyy  |  Published on EGF: 04.08.2010  |  External Relations
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Jordan has always been a moderate monarchy and, taking into account the role of the British Empire in the foundation of the Hashemite Kingdom, one of the most pro-Western regimes in the Arab East. Jordan’s well-established relations with Russia, which have become even closer and warmer during the last decade, might therefore seem surprising. However, in the Middle East, perhaps even more than in any geopolitical regions, neither generalizations nor stereotypes are able to reflect complex realities. Moscow and Amman have a number of reasons to preserve and cultivate their cooperation

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 13.07.2010  |  External Relations
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Turkey’s importance to the EU should not be underestimated
Turkey’s unique geopolitical position, straddling both Europe and Asia (encompassing its proximity in the Middle East, Caucuses, Balkans, and Black & Caspian Sea regions specifically), has placed the country into a very advantageous position amongst all actors that are involved in any of these areas. Its longstanding membership in NATO and the Council of Europe, in addition to its historical military partnership with Israel, further underscores the fact that Turkey has long been, and continues to be, a partner of strategic importance to the West. Furthermore, with no end in sight to Europe’s reliance on imported Eurasian and Russian gas supplies, Turkey’s territory is the crossroads for the planned NABUCCO gas pipeline, which intends to decrease European reliance on Russian gas.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.06.2010  |  Energy
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Energy and security: Russia’s new obsession with the wider Black Sea region Revived by the economic recovery it has witnessed in recent years, and not necessarily weakened by the global financial crisis, Russia is demonstrating itself to be an increasingly assertive (political and economic) force in the wider-Black and Caspian Seas (BCS) basin. Exerting influence in the BCS region is a crucial element in the Russian geopolitical strategy, given the region’s importance both as an energy producer as well as its vitality as a primary corridor for the transit of oil and gas to international markets.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 26.05.2010  |  Energy
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Today, the European Parliament renewed its commitment to greater engagement by the European Union in the South Caucasus as it adopted a new resolution on EU policy in the region [1]. This is the first resolution dedicated to the South Caucasus countries since the launch, in 2009, of the EU’s landmark Eastern Partnership policy [2].

• AGBU Europe  |  Published on EGF: 24.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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“What lessons can we learn from the Soviet collapse and apply to the current situation in Russia?
First, we must remember that Russia today is an oil-dependent economy. No one can accurately predict the fluctuations of oil prices. The collapse of the Soviet Union should serve as a lesson to those who construct policy based on the assumption that oil prices will remain perpetually high. It would seem that in our country, which has lived through the collapse of the late 1980s and early 1990s, this fact would be evident. But as soon as the prices went up again at the beginning of 2000 and in 2004 became comparable in real terms to those at the beginning of the 1980s, the idea that ‘high oil revenues are forever’ has gained an even wider acceptance.

• Kari Liuhto  |  Published on EGF: 20.05.2010  |  Energy
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