Key Points for Policy Makers:

• The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is demonstrating that it is high time for Brussels to re- think its strategy towards the countries of the south bank of the Mediterranean
• EU political initiatives in MENA have often focused on democratisation capacity building, when most of the grievances which sparked this year’s revolts on the Arab street have been predominantly socio-economic in character
• Brussels needs to devise effective mechanisms to overcome divisiveness in the narrow priorities of individual member states if it is to become a credible force in the sphere of international crisis management. It also needs to improve its early warning crisis prevention and detection instruments – or develop such capacities
• MENA remains clouded by substantial uncertainty. There is no guarantee that democracy will emerge in the recently “liberated” MENA countries. However, Turkey might be able to offer such countries a credible model of democratic growth.
• Any major disruption in the supply of energy from the Middle East to international markets, as a result of the ongoing protests and civil conflict in the region, is unlikely
• A general realignment may be starting to take place in the Caspian and Central Asian energy markets: Russian may be losing its grip over the region

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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IMF Minimizes Stakeholders’ Risks Demanding Pension Reform in Ukraine – Experts

The Gorshenin Institute has polled experts to learn the prospects of pension reform in Ukraine and whether it will be possible to receive the next tranche from the IMF by not changing pension legislation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #15
05/02/2011
Ukraine believes that the negotiations with Russia on revising the gas price formula will be successful, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said. “We have started normal talks with Russia. We put very serious arguments on the negotiating table. Russia considered them and that is why the negotiations were really good,” he explained. At the same time, Azarov noted that Ukraine did not ask Russia for any preferential treatment or discounts. “We ask for a general European approach to price formation,” he explained. According to the prime minister, the very fact that the negotiations have been launched signals “clear success.” Meanwhile, Gazprom's official representative, Sergey Kupriyanov, stated once again that the Russian gas monopolist was satisfied with the contract with Ukraine. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #14
04/25/2011
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has said that Ukraine is not conducting negotiations on entering the Customs Union (CU) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. “We are not in the process of negotiations with the CU,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko said in Parliament. He added that Ukraine had agreements on a free trade area (FTA) with each individual state member of the CU. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during April 2011

Key Points:

• Turkish leaders continue to navigate the ongoing “Arab Spring”, this time as it moves to Turkish borders with protests engulfing Syria.
• Turkey’s record with press freedom remains under scrutiny, as the NGO, Journalists Without Borders, condemns the country in the run-up to the June 12 elections.
• The political situation in Turkey’s southeast remains volatile, with the Turkish military breaking up large scale protests by Kurdish demonstrators in the city of Hakkari on April 25
• Suggestions by finance experts allude to the overheating of the Turkish economy, while the Turkish Central Bank’s new head moves to quell such speculation.
• The Turkish Prime Minister announces plans for an Istanbul canal that some experts say could replace the need for the country’s participation in the EU-driven NABUCCO gas pipeline project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukrainians fear accidents at NPPs, − poll

A telephone poll was conducted by Gorshenin Institute on April 18 – 20, 2011, on the subject: “25 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident”. Overall 1000 respondents 18 years old and older were interviewed, based on a random sample, in all regional capitals of Ukraine, in Kyiv and Sevastopol. Regions of residence, gender and age of the respondents were used as quotas. The representation error of the poll does not exceed +/-3.2%. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #13
04/18/2011

On 12 April 2011, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Ukraine. During the visit, the Russian premier met with his Ukrainian counterpart Mykola Azarov and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Russia tries to revive the Russian Empire by means of the Customs Union – experts

Prior to this week’s visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Ukraine, the Gorshenin Institute asked experts to answer the following question: “What is more beneficial to Ukraine – setting up a free trade area with the EU or joining the Customs Union with Russia?” READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukraine’s European integration does not confront country’s Euroasian Pace - experts

The Gorshenin Institute has conducted a round table discussion called “Setting up Free Trade Zone with Europe or Joining Customs Union with Russia: what Brings Ukraine more Benefit?” The attending experts said that the Customs Union consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan may impose restrictions on import of Ukrainian goods if Ukraine signs a Free Trade Deal with the European Union. However, sectoral agreements with the Customs Union’s members may become a plausible alternative to full membership. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 19.04.2011  |  External Relations
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March 2011
Key points:

• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.04.2011  |  External Relations
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