Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.

• Armen Grigoryan  |  Published on EGF: 19.06.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: PGNiG files a lawsuit in Stockholm arbitration court, seeks renegotiation of gas price formula; British energy company, Centrica, increases gas imports from Gazprom and Statoil
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom claims that Turkish Stream offshore construction will begin in first half of June 2015, and first gas supplies will be delivered by end of 2016; Greek government expresses support for all aspects of ‘Turkish Stream’ – except for the name, of course
• Ukraine: A curious mixture of threats and promises in the Gazprom-Naftogaz relationship:
  o Gazprom continues to provide gas to Naftogaz under pre-payment conditions, in line with extension of the ‘Winter Package’;
  o Naftogaz increases imports of Russian gas, benefits from continuation of discount and oil-indexed prices;
  o Gazprom agrees not to implement financial penalties for Naftogaz’s failure to meet its take-or-pay commitments during the winter package;
  o Naftogaz submits its Statement of Claim in its gas transit arbitration case against Gazprom – seeks $10bn in addition to its $6bn claim relating to ‘overpayment’ for gas supplies;
  o Gazprom CEO claims that company is seeking $29bn in its arbitration case with Naftogaz;
  o The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine launches its own investigation into Gazprom
  o Naftogaz begins stockpiling gas for the winter, but Gazprom express concerns that it is not storing enough to ensure a winter of risk-free gas transit
• Belarus: Gazprom Transgaz Belarus promotes development of natural gas powered vehicles at Belarusian Industrial Forum, supported by the Belarusian President
• China: Russian President ratifies Intergovernmental Agreement with China on gas supplies via the eastern route, as Gazprom and CNPC sign Heads of Agreement of gas supplies via the western (Altai) route

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.06.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
15 April – 15 May 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP) looks set to be a king maker in June’s parliamentary elections, though its leader vows its election platform is “the nightmare of the sultan”—in reference to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• The HDP makes a bold play to connect with voters outside of its core Kurdish constituency that, if successful, may siphon votes away from the Republican People’s Party (CHP). If it fails, however, the party risks being shut out of parliament entirely.
• After many years of competing interests, Saudi-Turkish political cooperation has the potential to impact the entire region.
• While the Turkish Stream project grabs headlines, progress on the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) draws the interest of potential new suppliers from Iraq and Iran.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.05.2015  |  External Relations
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Special Report as the European Commission issues a ‘Statement of Objections’ in its antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Special Report on the European Commission Antimonopoly Investigation into Gazprom
Main points in brief
The European Commission has issued a ‘Statement of Objections’ in its antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom. This statement is essentially a detailed explanation of the European Commission’s grievances, and how it suspects that Gazprom may have breached EU law. Gazprom now has up to 12 weeks to reply. Once Gazprom has responded, the European Commission will make its final decision. If Gazprom is found to have violated EU antitrust regulations, it may face a financial penalty of up to 10 percent of its annual turnover. This could mean a fine of $10-15bn. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.05.2015  |  External Relations
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Joining the dots and making sense of the key Geopolitical developments in wider Europe, Eurasia and MENA
By George Vlad NICULESCU, Head of Research, European Geopolitical Forum

• The likeliest scenario for Ukraine: a “frozen conflict” in the Donbass with periodical outbursts of violence and European fireman-type interventions
• Brussels think tank kicks off public debate on a new Western strategy against Russia, but leaves questions to be answered
• A common economic space (CES) from Lisbon to Vladivostok: Does it make sense, or is it just a piece of information warfare?
• Russian plans for Turkish Stream: the geopolitics of South Stream intertwined with Turkish ambitions to become a regional energy hub
• Towards a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear file – a genuine cornerstone for geopolitical reshuffling in the Middle-East and beyond?

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
1 March 2015 – 16 April 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• President Erdogan claims Iran is attempting to divide and conquer the Middle East, but tempers his criticisms following a visit to Tehran.
• Turkish journalist Emre Kizilkaya notes the aftereffects of the Gezi Park protests and their resulting impact on the opposition’s electoral processes.
• A Cold War relic reappears in a terrorist attack by a far left group, though the lack of support for the group’s actions indicate maturing Turkish political attitudes.
• The geostrategic implications of the Turkish Stream Pipeline expand as two EU-member states sign on and Turkish energy importers seek to lower rising Russian gas prices.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 28.04.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: European leaders agree on ‘greater transparency’ in the EU gas market, but confidentiality of commercial contracts to remain
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom implements agreement to buy out its European partners in South Stream; Gazprom waiting for permission to begin survey work on Turkish Stream as Ankara presses for further concessions
• Ukraine: Gazprom and Naftogaz extend the ‘winter package’ to cover Q2 2015
• Belarus: Belarus to play a role in Gazprom’s import substitution programme
• China: Gazprom could postpone the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline project and shift focus to the ‘Altai pipeline’ as a means of delivering gas to China; Stroytransgaz awarded contract for laying first 200km of ‘Power of Siberia’

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.04.2015  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
6 February – 28 February 2015
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• “Turkish Stream” looks increasingly viable as Turkey and Russia move forward with planning the Black Sea pipeline. The project worries supporters of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project, especially Azerbaijan, though experts view the project as part of Turkey’s long term goal of diversifying pipeline projects that cross its territory in order to become an influential transit hub.
• From his prison cell, PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on the armed group to lay down the gun and pick up the ballot. The opportunity is now present for the AKP government to move forward on the Kurdish democratization package.
• Turkey’s muted response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea leaves the peninsula’s 300,000 Tatars without a champion to highlight increasing persecution at the hands of the Moscow-backed government there.
• The Southern Gas Corridor remains viable as Turkey diversifies its participation in pipeline projects. The government reiterates its commitment to TANAP, while Iran feels out future opportunities to partner with Turkey on a revived NABUCCO.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.03.2015  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Dr Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

• Gazprom and the EU: European Commission could present the results of its antimonopoly investigation into Gazprom ‘in a matter of weeks’
• Turkish Stream: Gazprom CEO and Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources visit intended ‘Turkish Stream’ pipeline route; Turkish Botaş receives 10 percent discount on gas imports from Gazprom; Turkish Stream: Pro et Contra
• Ukraine: The ‘winter package’; A new dispute over gas supplies to the Donbass; Gazprom awaits advance payments for March gas supplies as time runs out on the ‘winter package’
• Belarus: Gazprom Transgaz Belarus named ‘top taxpayer’ in Belarus; Belarus settles payments for Russian gas in roubles; Gazprom to invest in Belarusian gas transmission and gas storage
• China: Gazprom seeks Asian investment and loans, receives top credit rating from Chinese agency; Gazprom promises exports to China still on schedule

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 16.03.2015  |  External Relations
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Snapshot analysis by Ben McPherson, Principal Editor, European Geopolitical Forum

In May 2014 an important initiative, the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, or CANWFZ, was enshrined by the actions of five nuclear states—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia—as they signed a Protocol agreeing to respect the non-proliferation framework. The idea has been discussed since at least 1993, when the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, proposed it at the UN General Assembly. READ MORE

• Ben McPherson  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2015  |  Security
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