On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 19.03.2026  |  Security
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 19.03.2026  |  Security
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By Bibhu Prasad ROUTRAY, PhD, Director & Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

As the war in Iran and Ukraine rages, together with China’s continued expansion, noticeably in the South China Sea but also in Myanmar/Burma, major global players are preoccupied to the extent that non-state extremist actors have virtually free rein to expand. The global terror groups Islamic State and al Qaeda sense a window of opportunity to consolidate in their current strongholds and push beyond. Much of this organisational expansion and accompanying violence is taking place in Asia and West Africa. However, if the wars drag on, limiting security responses of the major nations to the evolving threats, such violence can potentially spread to Europe and even the United States. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 19.03.2026  |  Security
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By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

Diplomatic initiatives to end the war in Ukraine are fundamentally misguided, because they seek a political solution that remains unattainable under current circumstances. International efforts should instead focus on securing a stable ceasefire that locks in the existing contact line without conditioning its achievement on impractical and damaging political concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty or the fate of its occupied territories. The durability of such a ceasefire should rest primarily on Ukraine’s own strength, not on international peacekeepers or Russia’s goodwill.
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a grinding stalemate. Neither can achieve a decisive military victory any time soon, and neither can accept the political terms the other demands. Russian forces make incremental advances, but at the expense of staggering losses. Latest data on Russian casualties from the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian open-source mapping project Deep State suggest that between January and December 2025, Russia lost roughly 96 troops per square kilometre taken. With roughly 5,000 square km of Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control, Russia would need to sacrifice close to half a million servicemen to occupy the remainder. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 13.01.2026  |  Security
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Over the last decade, the development of Turkey’s defence industry has become a crucial aspect of its soft power diplomacy in both regional and global politics. The country has made significant efforts to invest heavily in the development of its indigenous defence industry, reducing its dependence on imports and becoming a leading defence exporter in global markets. The rapidly changing regional and global geopolitical landscape, particularly after the Arab uprisings, has prompted Ankara to expand the country’s defence industry and reduce its reliance on overseas arms procurement and international supply chains. Since the ruling AKP government came to power, the country’s indigenous defence industry has undergone a significant transformation, steadily becoming the twelfth-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Given the regional instability marked by violent uprisings and sectarian conflicts, Türkiye’s pursuit of defence industry development can be understood as a primarily threat-driven strategy. This approach reflects an effort to enhance national defence capabilities and ensure strategic autonomy in response to both external security challenges and internal vulnerabilities. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.12.2025  |  Security
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The war in Ukraine has evolved into a complex geopolitical conflict while demonstrating the transformative role that drone technology has played in shaping the course of the war. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to actively embrace modern warfare technology, especially the use of First-Person Drones (FPVs) which were critical in inflicting grave damage on Russian forces using ‘meat grinder’ tactics to storm Ukrainian front-line positions. In the past two years, Ukrainian forces have used FPV drones for real-time intelligence and reconnaissance of Russian positions and troop movements while also deploying cost-effective “kamikaze” drones to target Russian recruits, tanks, howitzers, and other armoured vehicles. Although drone technology is now a core part of Ukraine’s struggle against Russian intervention, Kyiv initially faced an acute shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the early stages of the war, while the requirements of its frontline forces were partially met by civilian drones, mostly produced by the Chinese company DJI. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.12.2025  |  Security
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By Jean-Marie L’HUISSIERE, independent consultant and expert on European maritime policies

While the European Union (EU) benefits today from a large regulatory acquis and from a vast experience in maritime operations and programmes, efforts must go on with regard to coordination and consistency to overcome sectoral divisions and increase efficiency. Taking up challenges and stakes in the maritime domain requires to implement concretely the integration principles and the comprehensive approach, by coordinating the use of both civilian and military resources and capabilities available to the EU. […] An initiative aiming at establishing an inter-institutional mechanism for maritime governance at strategic level opens prospects in this direction. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 05.12.2025  |  Security
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The Zangezur Corridor – recently rebranded as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — has become one of the most discussed and debated infrastructure projects in Eurasia. Stretching 43 kilometres through Armenia’s Syunik Province, it promises to reconnect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave and, through Türkiye, to Europe. It is a project of logistics and trade — a corridor capable of shortening cargo transit from Asia to Europe from 18 days to 12 along the Middle Corridor, reducing dependency on maritime choke points, and creating new opportunities for growth across the South Caucasus. In practice, however, the TRIPP risks becoming a stage for geopolitical contestation unless regional actors ensure that its purpose remains economic, inclusive, and depoliticized. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 13.11.2025  |  Security
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 25, Azerbaijan participated in the Nusret-2025 Invitation Exercise, a joint military drill held in the Gulf of Soros in Türkiye. The exercise aimed to strengthen cooperation between the Turkish Naval Forces and the naval forces of friendly and allied countries, such as Azerbaijan. This is the latest example of Azerbaijan’s partnership with Türkiye in strengthening its naval forces. The Caucasus region, particularly the Caspian littoral, is emerging as a focal point of geopolitical competition amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The Caspian, often referred to as a “Russian lake” during the Soviet era, has presented new challenges to Russia’s regional dominance since 2022. Until the 2020s, Russia remained the most powerful naval power in the Caspian Sea, despite Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran systematically enhancing their naval capabilities over the past three decades. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as regional conflicts and reordering, have exacerbated Moscow’s declining leverage and hegemony in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 07.11.2025  |  Security
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By Yunis GURBANOV, PhD, Senior Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku

In September, countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reported several incidents involving airspace violations. On September 10, 19 drones crossed into Polish territory, prompting Warsaw to call for Article 4 consultations. In a separate episode on September 19, three Russian MiG-31 jets briefly entered Estonian airspace before being intercepted by NATO air policing units. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described these developments as concerning and emphasized that the Alliance remains attentive to safeguarding its members’ security. These incidents reflect an increasingly complex security environment along NATO’s eastern flank. The combination of drone activity and jet overflights highlights the challenges of managing airspace security in an era of hybrid threats. At the same time, the use of unmarked drones, short-duration incursions, and deactivated transponders complicates attribution and leaves room for differing interpretations of intent. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 17.10.2025  |  Security
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